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ByteTrail · AI and developer-tools intelligence
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Fields · this week
All fields2789Multimodal473Agents461Frontier LLMs414Inference & serving235Image segmentation162Graph learning1523D scene145Learning verifiable rewards136Voice AI84Classifier & causal discovery78Forecasting time75Flow matching65Machine learned interatomic45Adversarial training45Federated learning45All 23 fields

Open problems across fields

  • General in-context learning for embodied agents1 paper raises it · 0 address it

    Improving adaptability of models to new tasks and environments without task-specific fine-tuning is critical for scalable embodied intelligence.

    • Has GPT-6-Astra Achieved Embodied Intelligence?raises
  • Cost and latency in agentic systems2 papers raise it · 1 addresses it

    High computational and time costs limit practical deployment of agentic systems for real-world tasks.

    • Has GPT-6-Astra Achieved Embodied Intelligence?raises
    • PremiseCheck: Efficient Fact-Checking of Human and AI Peer Reviewsraises · addresses
  • Physical-state verification and failure recovery1 paper raises it · 0 address it

    Robustness to irreversible failures and accurate state tracking are essential for reliable embodied control.

    • Has GPT-6-Astra Achieved Embodied Intelligence?raises
  • Evidence-grounded multimodal reasoning benchmarks1 paper raises it · 1 addresses it

    Current benchmarks often fail to ensure models use necessary audio-visual evidence, weakening evaluation reliability.

    • EvaOmni: An Evidence-Grounded Benchmark for Audio-Visual Reasoningraises · addresses
  • Length generalization in sequential state tracking1 paper raises it · 1 addresses it

    Models struggle to maintain performance on problems much longer than their training data, limiting scalability.

    • PAR: Progress-Aligned Recurrence for Length Generalization in State Trackingraises · addresses

Named by an AI from these papers' abstracts.

Rising research topics

  • Federated learning45+12.5%
  • Adversarial training45−2.2%
  • Forecasting time75−5.1%
  • Frontier LLMs414−17.0%
  • Agents461−18.0%
  • Classifier & causal discovery78−19.6%
  • Machine learned interatomic45−19.6%
  • Quantum machine learning20−20.0%

Papers

  • arXiv cs.SDVoice AIOct 15

    Qwen-Audio-Jev: A Unified Interface for Audio Decisions

    Ying Fang, Zhifu Gao, Qing Gu, Jiajun He, Kangqi Jing +3

    Large audio language models (LALMs) have made substantial progress in audio understanding. However, in high-throughput applications requiring frequent selection, judgment, and scoring, autoregressive text generation introduces additional computational overhead and response latency. To address this limitation, we introduce Qwen-Audio-Jev by augmenting Qwen-Audio-3.1-ASR-Flash-Next with a dedicated Jev decision head. The model unifies selection, binary judgment, and scoring through three decision primitives: CHOICE, NOUL, and SCORE. Given audio, a natural-language question, and an explicit answer specification, it directly produces a task-conditioned probability distribution or a numerical score through typed decision readouts. Evaluation across 18 labeled configurations covers all three primitives: for CHOICE, Qwen-Audio-Jev achieves accuracies of 78.70% on MMAU-mini and 84.06% on MMSU; for NOUL, it achieves an equal error rate of 6.50% on the VoxCeleb1-O speaker verification benchmark; and for SCORE, the model achieves a normalized mean absolute error of 0.1062 on NISQA overall quality assessment, with Pearson and Spearman correlations of 0.8210 and 0.8074, respectively. Compared…

    AIMultimodal80PDF
  • arXiv cs.AIAgentsOct 15

    Learning Intrinsic Dynamics in Latent World Models

    Jiamin Shi, Yuanhong Zhang, Zhiyang Liu, Jiawei Sun, Jingwen Fu

    Learning intrinsic dynamics---the relationship between actions and their consequences---is essential for world models. However, visual variations unrelated to the underlying control process can obscure this relationship in learned representations. We investigate the connection between action predictability, defined as the ability to reconstruct an action from consecutive latent states, and the preservation of intrinsic dynamics. Our central hypothesis is that encouraging action predictability discourages representations from discarding the distinctions between different actions and their consequences. We provide two complementary forms of evidence for this connection. Theoretically, we derive a positive lower bound on squared inverse prediction error when the encoder merges distinguishable outcomes of different actions from the same state and appearance, and show that forward prediction can still be exact on those transitions. Empirically, controlled appearance-diversity comparisons, supervision interventions, and latent probes support the role of action prediction in preserving control-relevant transition information. We instantiate action predictability with Concat IDM, which…

    AITraining & fine-tuning50PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGOct 15

    TRACE: Transformer Residual Activation Codebook Encoding for Communication-efficient Distributed Edge Inference

    Muhammad Azlan Qazi, Alexandros Iosifidis, Qi Zhang

    Distributed Transformer inference across co-located edge devices is fundamentally communication-bound, as exchanging activations between sequence-parallel partitions dominates inference latency under commodity edge bandwidths. Existing compression schemes reduce this cost but retain a structural bottleneck: the received data must still undergo key/value projection before attention can proceed, serializing computation behind communication. This paper presents Transformer Residual Activation Codebook Encoding (Trace), a framework that addresses these limitations. Trace places a Vector Quantizer (VQ) at the post-attention residual of every Transformer layer and precomputes codebook-indexed key/value representations. During inference, exchanged activations are encoded into compact codebook indices, allowing receivers to directly recover keys and values through table lookup instead of executing the downstream computations required to derive them. By eliminating the received data downstream computation, Trace enables communication--computation overlap and reduces a key latency bottleneck in distributed Transformer inference. A hierarchical clustering further structures the learned…

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGAI safetyOct 15

    Market Incentives for AI Safety Investment

    Nikita Tsoy

    Despite their practical significance, modern AI systems pose significant societal risks, including toxicity, malicious use, and misinformation. Their mitigation depends not only on technical feasibility but also on the incentives of firms that develop and deploy these systems. We show how profit maximization shapes safety investment in an AI supply chain with an upstream LLM provider and several competing downstream firms. In our game-theoretic model, we derive the market-driven level of safety investment and compare it with the levels that maximize market welfare and industry profit. We find that downstream competition generally induces downstream firms to invest more in safety than the industry-profit-optimal level. By contrast, the upstream provider may underinvest relative to these benchmarks because it is not fully compensated for the surplus from safety investments. Finally, we analyze how different regulatory interventions affect the participants' incentives and profits, and the resulting levels of model safety.

    AI40PDF
  • arXiv cs.AIAgentsOct 15

    Evaluating Inquiry Learning in LLM-Based Agents: Hypothesizing, Reasoning, and Exploration

    Marta Knežević, Seyed Parsa Neshaei, Jibril Frej, Vinitra Swamy, Tanja Käser

    Scientific inquiry involves iterative cycles of exploration, hypothesis generation, and reasoning over observations to uncover relationships in complex systems. Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in several components of this process, including inductive reasoning, hypothesis generation, and data analysis. However, prior work typically evaluates these abilities in isolation, leaving open how models integrate them across a full inquiry cycle. In this work, we introduce a framework for evaluating LLMs' inquiry capabilities in a unified, interactive setting. We extend the Countdown task to a mathematical environment where an agent probes the system by manipulating variables, collecting observations, and inferring relationships between them. This setup enables analysis of exploration strategies, causal discovery, and hypothesis refinement during inquiry. Across seven LLMs and multiple prompting strategies, our experiments reveal limited inherent inquiry capabilities and low success rates in discovering the underlying expressions. However, structured guidance inspired by educational scaffolding significantly improves performance. Our findings highlight…

    AIEvals70PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGAgentsOct 15▲ 668

    Waypoint-OPD: Transferring RL-Induced Policy Shifts via Gated On-Policy Distillation

    Bingxi Hou, Guochao Jiang, Guofeng Quan, Weiqing Li, Wenfeng Feng +2

    Policy-shift distillation reuses the difference between a teacher's log probabilities before and after reinforcement learning (RL) as supervision on student-generated trajectories. However, this endpoint policy shift cannot reveal whether local action preferences evolved consistently during teacher training. The same endpoint shift can result from early and late shifts that reinforce or partially cancel each other. We investigate whether agreement between early and late teacher policy shifts can guide selective transfer. We introduce Waypoint-guided On-Policy Distillation (Waypoint-OPD), which uses an intermediate teacher checkpoint from the same RL run to compare early and late shifts in relative action preferences at student-visited prefixes. We gate the endpoint shift according to the directional agreement between the early and late shifts, suppressing it when they point in opposing directions. Compared with endpoint-only transfer, our method requires only one additional frozen-teacher scoring pass. Using RL-trained Qwen3-4B teachers, we evaluate our method with Qwen3-8B, Qwen3-14B, and Qwen3-30B-A3B as student models in mathematical and code reasoning. In all six…

    AITraining & fine-tuning60Code
  • arXiv cs.NIDeveloper toolingOct 15

    Decoding What iOS Location Services Send to Apple: An LLM Is an Unreliable Analyst but a Useful Toolmaker

    Douglas Leith

    Reverse engineering the data formats used by mobile software is skilled and slow, and using AI to assist with it is attractive. We evaluate this for the protobuf messages that an iPhone sends to Apple's location services. Working from Apple's binaries, we use two frontier models (Claude Opus 4.8, Codex GPT Sol 5.6) to reconstruct the schemas of protobufs observed in network traffic. The great majority of the schemas contain substantial errors, and these are hard to detect because the schemas are internally consistent. Direct AI use is therefore unsuitable for forensic and privacy analysis. AI can, however, write reliable analysis tools when their output can be validated. We use Claude to write a Python tool, Extractor, that reliably recovers protobuf schemas from Apple binaries. We validate it against binaries compiled from schemas with known answers, previously published schemas, and network measurements. We demonstrate the use of Extractor to decode and analyse the location services network traffic of a jailbroken iPhone 8 (iOS 16.7.11).

    AIAI safety60PDF
  • arXiv cs.AIInference & servingOct 15

    LoopAhead: Speculating Ahead for Faster Decoding in Looped Language Models

    Zixuan Liu, Nan Xue, Rui Bao, Yuhang Xu, Xiaofeng Cao +2

    Looped Transformers improve parameter efficiency by repeatedly applying the same Transformer layers. However, generating each token still involves sequential computation and repeated access to model weights, leading to high decoding latency. Recent pipelined self-speculative decoding methods reduce this delay by drafting tokens from early-loop predictions and asynchronously advancing tokens at different recurrent depths in the same batch, but they do not fully exploit early-loop features for longer lookahead and still spend computation verifying incorrect speculative branches. We introduce \method, a speculative decoding framework for looped transformers that enables earlier drafting of future tokens and assigns complementary roles to different recurrent depths. A lightweight lookahead drafter (LAD) predicts multiple future tokens with early-loop states, and deeper-loop feedback helps decide which draft branches to continue and which to pause, while the full-depth model makes the final token decisions. LoopAhead achieves up to 7.82x decoding speedup over autoregressive decoding while preserving the target model's output distribution.

    AIFrontier LLMs80PDF
  • arXiv cs.AIOct 15

    LOADBench: A Large Open Analog Dataset and Benchmark for Machine Learning in IC Design

    M. Leibl, F. Azevedo, S. Uhlich, A. Bonetti, A. Venkitaraman +5

    Machine learning (ML) for analog IC design is constrained by limited open data and the absence of standardized evaluation: results reported in different papers are typically obtained on bespoke, often closed, datasets and with ad-hoc metrics, leaving comparisons across methods unreliable. We address both gaps with a large opensource dataset and a suite of standardized benchmarks. The dataset contains more than 100 operational amplifier (opamp) topologies (1-, 2-, and 3-stage) in the SkyWater130 PDK, each shipped with structural and functional annotations, topology-specific sizing constraints (symmetry and sizing rules), an Ngspice testbench, and a multi-objective NSGA-II sizing run producing around 103 Pareto-optimal and 106 intermediate sizing-performance pairs per topology. On top of this data we define six benchmark tasks with precise protocols: inverse sizing, topology selection, sub-circuit classification, structural circuit generation, Pareto-membership prediction, and multi-objective optimization. Thus, the data presented here constitutes the most comprehensive dataset for ML development in over four decades of analog IC design automation. The dataset, ground-truth…

    AI20PDF
  • arXiv cs.CVMultimodalOct 15

    Hear, Localize, and Reason: Spatially Aware Scene Understanding for Audio-Visual LLMs

    Kim Sung-Bin, Lee Jung-Mok, Jinwoo Jung, Oh Hyun-Bin, Hyeonggon Ryu +2

    Audio-visual large language models (AV-LLMs) have made strong progress in multimodal understanding, yet most treat audio as monaural semantic content, limiting their ability to reason about where sounds originate and how they relate to the visual scene. Recent spatial audio-visual studies address parts of this problem, but often focus on specific abilities, such as spatial correspondence or direction and distance reasoning. In this work, we introduce HLR-AVSceneQA, a comprehensive benchmark with a hear-localize-reason hierarchy that evaluates whether models can recognize what is heard, localize sound sources in egocentric and allocentric views, and use these localized sources to reason about how they relate to the visual scene. We further introduce HLR-LLM, which augments a strong audio-visual foundation model with a binaural spatial audio branch alongside its monaural semantic audio pathway. We train HLR-LLM with a curriculum that incorporates final-stage chain-of-thought supervision for multi-step spatial reasoning. Experiments show that existing AV-LLMs remain limited in spatial grounding and relational reasoning, while HLR-LLM substantially improves spatial audio-visual scene…

    AIEvals80PDF
  • arXiv cs.RORoboticsOct 15

    AVALON: Zero-Shot Indoor Navigation with Human-Seeded Topological Memory

    Jing Xia, Changyan Li, Yuduo Wang, Guiyin Tian, Bo Wang +3

    Indoor service robots often enter unmapped buildings whose layouts and task constraints are already familiar to users. We address this human-familiar, robot-unseen setting with AVALON, a topological navigation framework organized around human-seeded layered spatial memory, node-verified topological execution, and task-triggered, evidence-gated human--robot memory co-updating. The robot has no prior on-site traversal or site-specific training. Deployment requires only a floor plan, place clues, and an initial topology-odometry alignment. Visual depth point-goal navigation leverages verified node arrivals to perform translational re-anchoring, without requiring a robot-constructed global SLAM map. Human--robot memory co-updating fuses complementary sources of information. Human operators specify task constraints that are unobservable via vision and report offline environmental modifications, whereas the robot provides physical-state evidence through active in-situ validation. Task relevance governs whether human-reported environmental changes undergo robot validation during the active mission. Field-collected perceptual evidence gates memory updates, maintaining an explicit…

    AIAgents70PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGOct 15

    Transfer Learning in Bandits from Unknown Adaptive Policies: Problem-Dependent Lower and Upper Bounds

    Adrien Prevost, Timothee Mathieu, Waris Radji, Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

    Transfer learning in stochastic multi-armed bandits is typically studied assuming that prior data forms a fixed offline dataset or is generated by a known source. In practice, historical observations come from a previous adaptive decision process whose policy is unknown. We study this setting for bounded rewards in $[0,1]$. Before the online game starts, the learner receives, for each arm $k$, $N'_k$ observations drawn i.i.d.\ from an unknown distribution $ν'_k$, collected by an arbitrary and possibly data-dependent strategy, so the sample sizes $N'_k$ may be random. Source and target means satisfy $|μ_k-μ'_k|<L_k$ for known constants $(L_k)_k$. We derive an asymptotic problem-dependent lower bound and propose KL-UCB-Transfer, which combines online and historical data and achieves logarithmic regret with an improved leading constant whenever $μ'_a<μ_1-L_a$, and recovers the classical KL-UCB guarantee otherwise. Since bounding the source-target discrepancy is often unrealistic, we relax the assumption to the one-sided condition $μ_k-μ'_k<L_k$ and show that logarithmic regret can survive under misspecification, characterizing three regimes ranging from improvement to a degraded…

    AI30PDF
  • arXiv cs.AIEvalsOct 15

    ClaimScope: Label-Blind Witness Verification for Mathematical Claim Auditing

    Mushir Akhtar

    Mathematical agents are commonly evaluated by answer accuracy or proof acceptance. We introduce ClaimScope, a 72-task benchmark for auditing proposed claims through a verdict, scope, counterexample, and repair. Tasks cover optimizer-state transport, finite-horizon affine recurrences, and exact $2\times2$ linear algebra. We evaluate Qwen3-8B with direct generation and four matched two-pass conditions, each starting from the same draft. A witness checker evaluates only the model's submitted state, without consulting reference verdicts or supplying a replacement witness. Its feedback still conveys information about validity: a verified refutation establishes that the claim is false, and rejection reasons can suggest structural fixes. In this evaluation, verifier feedback yields $23/39$ accepted counterexamples on invalid claims and $25/72$ safe completions, compared with $15/39$ and $20/72$ for checker-free generic feedback. Strict completion remains $17/72$; verdict accuracy changes from $47/72$ to $46/72$. The claim-grouped safe-completion difference is $.094$, with a bootstrap 95\% interval of $[.000,.198]$. All seven task-level gains follow horizon/input-length diagnostics. A…

    AIAgents70PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGOct 15

    Learning to Search for Executable Patternmaking from Certified Programs

    Zhuotao Xu, Chi Zeng, Liying Yang, Xinxing Yu, Yanyan Liang

    Recent models generate sewing patterns from images or text, and program-based representations make these patterns executable. These systems produce a finished pattern and do not model how a patternmaker turns one pattern into another. In practice a new style is made by editing an existing pattern: lengthening the bodice, moving a dart, swapping a sleeve. Pattern archives record the results of such edits and none of the steps. We observe that the steps can be recovered by searching over editing actions until one pattern becomes the other. A deterministic compiler makes the recovered steps checkable. To this end, we present SemDraft, the first framework that learns to search for executable patternmaking programs from paired before-and-after sewing patterns without recorded editing steps. Specifically, a bounded search recovers a program of editing actions and certifies it only after three checks: it recompiles from scratch, every pair of its actions is classified as ordered or interchangeable, and an independent replay reaches the same pattern. The certified programs then train a model that ranks candidate actions inside the same search. On two frozen draws of 80 order-sensitive…

    AI20PDF
  • arXiv cs.CVMultimodalOct 15

    MYOPIA: Understanding the Limits of Tree-Based Reasoning in Vision-Language Models

    Islam Mesabah, Sary Elmansoury, Gerrit Großmann, Peter Neigel, Sebastian J. Vollmer

    Decision trees can make vision-language model (VLM) classification interpretable by replacing a single prediction with a sequence of root-to-leaf questions. However, the accuracy cost of this greedy, non-backtracking procedure remains unclear. We introduce \textbf{MYOPIA}, a benchmark comprising four LLM-generated, human-refined decision trees for GTSRB, MNIST, CIFAR-10, and MSCOCO, together with matched prompts, diagnostic protocols, and an evaluation harness. Across GPT-4o, Qwen-VL Max, and LLaMA-3.2 11B Vision, tree traversal underperforms zero-shot prompting in all 12 dataset--model pairs; paired bootstrap analyses consistently favor zero-shot. Our diagnostics characterize interacting failure modes associated with this gap. Models often recall tree-encoded class attributes more accurately than they ground the same attributes in images: the mean label--image accuracy gaps are 9.5, 13.8, and 12.6 points for GPT-4o, Qwen-VL Max, and LLaMA, respectively. Incorrect local decisions then irreversibly exclude the correct class, while answer extraction introduces additional model-dependent loss. A node-level audit of the four trees finds that split entropy is weakly but consistently…

    AIEvals80PDF
  • arXiv cs.CLAgentsOct 15

    Rethinking the Role of Tool Graph Memory in Multi-Turn Tool Use

    Uiji Hwang, Richeng Xuan, Taeuk Kim

    Large language model (LLM) agents solve complex tasks by calling external tools over multiple turns. Recent work has proposed tool graph memory, which stores past experience as tool transitions to guide subsequent selection. However, it remains unclear whether this component consistently improves agents' tool use or undermines it. We evaluate tool graph memory on nine models and two benchmarks, finding that it seldom improves significantly over baselines, and that its gains, where present, cost over twice the LLM calls. The memory's guidance is often incorrect, and random or no guidance retains most of the gain, implying that the benefit stems from extra computation rather than the memory itself. Moreover, even with the correct next tool suggested, many failures remain, such as giving up without a tool call. Storing the same experience instead as textual insights outperforms tool graph memory with almost no extra LLM calls. This suggests that memory serves better as a soft prior than as a prescription of the next tool, leading to a more effective and generalizable solution.

    AIEvals80PDF
  • arXiv cs.ARAgentsOct 15

    Independent Data-Integrity Verification for LLM-Driven Functional Coverage Closure in Hardware Design

    Venkata Krishna Kumar Vedantam

    LLM agents can write directed tests that close functional coverage, but coverage only shows that a state was reached, not that the data on the way there was correct. This is a long-known point in verification and we do not claim it as new. We describe a small coverage-closure agent that applies it to an LLM loop: coverage is read from the report that the simulation itself exports (cocotb-coverage YAML) and never taken from the model's account, and data integrity is checked by scoreboards that are separate from the model. On three architecturally distinct RTL designs (an asynchronous FIFO, a UART transmitter and an AHB2APB bridge) the agent raised coverage from 91.7%, 88.9% and 67.4% to 100% within its 8-iteration budget in every logged run, using one design-agnostic agent. A reactive scoreboard monitor attached to the FIFO's base testbench also found a clock-domain-crossing bug in the author's own stimulus code. The monitor is not yet attached to the LLM-generated tests, so their data integrity is not independently checked; one manual check on a single FIFO test is reported as preliminary. We list the weaknesses of this evidence: three designs, no baseline, no ablation, and…

    AIEvals50PDF
  • arXiv cs.CVAI safetyOct 15

    Decoupled Safety Control: A Safety-Control Algorithm for Training-Free Safety Guidance

    Huilin Zhou, Ruoxi Cheng, Yuhang Wang, Yuming Liu, Minghao Sun +2

    Diffusion models achieve strong performance in text-to-image generation, but they can still produce unsafe content. Training-free safety guidance offers a practical inference-time alternative that intervenes during sampling without modifying model weights. However, many existing safeguards still rely on a coupled safety-control chain. In this chain, the same unsafe condition simultaneously specifies what should be avoided, indicates the current unsafe signal, constructs the intervention, and determines when that intervention remains active. This coupling can work when unsafe factors are explicit, but becomes less reliable once harmful and benign semantics are entangled in the current generation state, often leaving residual unsafe content or unnecessarily degrading benign-generation quality or prompt fidelity. We address this problem with Decoupled Safety Control (DSC), a plug-in safety-control algorithm for training-free safety guidance. DSC reformulates training-free safety guidance as an explicit state-dependent control process, so the executed intervention is determined from the current generation state rather than inherited directly from a single unsafe condition.…

    AIImage & video generation80PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGMultimodalOct 15

    From Perception to Prediction and Intervention: Benchmarking Proactive Video Assistants in Real-Life Scenarios

    Boyu Cui, Junhao Luo, Zhihao Wang, Linghan Chen, Zejun Li +3

    Recent multimodal large language models have advanced video understanding, but existing benchmarks mainly evaluate whether models can interpret observed visual content. In real-world scenarios, assistants must additionally anticipate what assistance is needed and decide when to provide it. To address this gap, we introduce \textsc{P$^3$IBench}, a benchmark for proactive video understanding in real-life streaming scenarios. It evaluates three complementary capabilities: daily perception, risk prediction and intervention. We benchmark 12 representative open-source and proprietary video-language models, including streaming and adapted non-streaming systems. Our evaluation shows that current models struggle to make well-calibrated response decisions. Finally, we construct additional proactive training data and train \textsc{P$^3$I-Assistant-4B}, achieving improvements on several tasks, though gains remain uneven across capabilities. Together, these findings show that effective proactive assistance requires not only visual understanding, but also precise response timing and appropriate restraint.

    AIEvals90PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGOct 15

    Sharp and Stable Label-Free Calibration Certificates from Logical Coherence

    Takahiro Kato

    Query-conditioned probabilistic predictors answer logically related questions one at a time, and labels to check their calibration are often missing. For each restriction on what a bettor's stakes may use, a minimax theorem identifies, for finitely supported laws of the answers, the sharp label-free lower bound on the corresponding calibration residual. On bundles of different events its mean, marginal and joint stages can separate strictly, and a bundle's bound cannot be attributed to one question without assumptions on the others. The sharp marginal bound is discontinuous in the answers, and no label-free lower bound continuous in the Wasserstein distance stays within a constant factor of it. Lipschitz stakes give a stable bound, sharp for a smooth calibration residual and, for every positive Lipschitz constant, positive exactly when the sharp marginal bound is. On i.i.d. streams, projected online gradient ascent at fixed nodes gives fixed-horizon certificates whose shortfall is bounded by grid, learning and statistical terms, and predictable betting gives anytime-valid ones. In a preregistered study of four predictors on two data sets, all seven confirmatory certificates were…

    AI20PDF
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