Research

• Deepfake detection44−10.2%
• Optimal power flow9−18.2%
• Electrocardiogram ecg31−27.9%
• Causal discovery14−30.0%
• Forecasting time44−32.3%
• Anomaly detectors12−33.3%
• Multimodal465−36.0%
• Machine learned interatomic33−36.5%

• Stable one-step generation in diffusion models1 paper raises it · 1 addresses it

  Multi-step inference in diffusion models is slow, and one-step methods often collapse in performance due to unstable dynamics.

  • Kinematic MeanFlow: One-Step Action Generation Policy for Robotic Foundation Modelsraises · addresses
• Evaluating model uncertainty with exact ground truth1 paper raises it · 1 addresses it

  Real-world data lacks instance-level class probabilities, making it hard to assess model calibration and uncertainty.

  • ProbabilityBench: Model Evaluation and Calibration with Exact Ground-Truth Uncertaintyraises · addresses
• Scalable optimal transport for flow matching1 paper raises it · 1 addresses it

  Small minibatches limit the benefits of optimal transport in flow matching, and scaling is computationally expensive.

  • Scaling Online Optimal Transport Minibatches for Flow Matchingraises · addresses
• Prior-consistent sampling for ambiguous inverse problems1 paper raises it · 1 addresses it

  Diffusion-based solvers for nonlinear inverse problems can produce prior-inconsistent solutions when multiple modes are measurement-consistent.

  • Beyond Best-of-$k$: Prior-Consistent DAPS for Ambiguous Nonlinear Inverse Problemsraises · addresses
• High-dimensional Bayesian optimization with limited budget1 paper raises it · 1 addresses it

  Latent spaces in generative models can be extremely high-dimensional, making optimization with limited evaluations inefficient.

  • SABLE: Scalable Affine Bayesian Latent-space Explorationraises · addresses

Named by an AI from these papers' abstracts.

• arXiv cs.CVOct 22

  Beyond Best-of-$k$: Prior-Consistent DAPS for Ambiguous Nonlinear Inverse Problems

  Merve Kocabas, Benjamin A. Burns, Andreas Geiger, Kent Gauen, Sara Fridovich-Keil

  Diffusion models have become strong priors for solving inverse problems. However, nonlinear inverse problems such as phase retrieval remain challenging when multiple measurement-consistent solutions are distinguishable only by the prior; we call such measurements ambiguous. Existing diffusion-based samplers rely on local approximations during reconstruction. For an ambiguous measurement, these approximations can allow measurement guidance to favor a measurement-consistent mode that is close to a prior-supported mode but is itself not supported by the prior. Evaluation often masks this type of failure by reporting the best-of-$k$ runs, where the best is selected by comparison to the ground truth. We introduce Prior-Consistent DAPS (PC-DAPS), a variant of Decoupled Annealing Posterior Sampling (DAPS) designed to address this failure case by maintaining multiple candidate solutions within a single sampling run. As annealing noise decreases, PC-DAPS prunes and replaces weaker candidates according to their prior consistency, without any ground-truth access. PC-DAPS reduces the incidence of prior-inconsistent samples and improves sample quality on nonlinear inverse problems while…

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• arXiv cs.LGOct 22

  SABLE: Scalable Affine Bayesian Latent-space Exploration

  Erik Bodin, Lisa Maria Kreusser, Donney Fan, Henry Moss, Geoff Pleiss +1

  Complex objects such as engineering designs and proteins are often difficult to optimise because their design spaces exhibit high-dimensional structure and objective evaluations are expensive. Generative models provide continuous latent representations, but their latent spaces can have thousands to tens of thousands of dimensions, creating a regime where the latent dimension $D$ greatly exceeds the evaluation budget. We introduce SABLE, a Bayesian optimisation method for high-dimensional latent spaces with an isotropic distribution and limited budget. SABLE uses a Bayesian affine surrogate for prediction and acquisition, treating higher-order structure as surrogate discrepancy. After $N$ observations, the slope update has dimension at most $N-1$, yielding a decomposition of each query into an in-span component optimised by expected improvement (EI) in at most $N$ dimensions and an off-span component governed by a scalar norm. We show that the off-span norm implicitly selected by affine EI can lead to underexploration, and SABLE instead prescribes it using a finite-horizon schedule, without restricting search to a learned subspace. A recompression scheme reduces information to…

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• arXiv eess.IVOct 22

  Self-Supervised Multibeam Sonar Restoration via Coherent Forward Modeling

  Zixin Wang, James Hopgood, Mike Davies

  Multibeam imaging sonar produces intensity images degraded by coherent speckle and system-induced blur, while clean reflectivity targets are rarely available. Existing despeckling methods often rely on simplified intensity-domain noise models, synthetic clean targets, or blind-spot self-supervision, and typically do not jointly model deblurring and speckle suppression. We propose a physics-consistent self-supervised framework for joint despeckling and deblurring of multibeam imaging sonar. A stochastic coherent image-formation model yields a conditional-mean forward operator that relates latent scene reflectivity to expected intensity through the squared magnitude of the system point spread function. We then use registered multi-frame sonar sequences to train without clean ground truth images, showing that, under an idealized inter-frame conditional-mean condition, the expected paired loss equals the corresponding forward-prediction loss up to a network-independent constant. To stabilize the ill-conditioned inverse problem, we further adapt robust equivariant imaging using stochastic coherent simulation and introduce a paired forward prediction error metric for ground-truth-free…

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• arXiv stat.MLOct 22

  Dimension-free regimes for unadjusted Langevin in ridge-separable models: A subspace robust Wasserstein analysis

  Yuansi Chen, Francesco Pedrotti, Peter A. Whalley

  The Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm (ULA) is widely used for high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Classical analyses in Wasserstein-2 distance predict an asymptotic bias and a mixing time that grow with dimension, but this metric is stronger than necessary for many statistical tasks. We instead analyze the bias in subspace robust Wasserstein distance, which controls the mean and arbitrary low-dimensional marginals and is therefore well suited to observables typically estimated in practice. For ridge-separable potentials formed with i.i.d. data, we prove high-probability bounds showing a bell-shaped mixing profile as the number of data points $N$ varies relative to the dimension $d$. In the overparameterized regime, the effective dimension is the rank $N$ of the data-dependent perturbation, leading to complexity depending on $N$ rather than $d$. In the large-sample regime, Gaussian-perturbation estimates yield dimension-free complexity once $N$ is sufficiently large. In contrast, near the proportional regime $\asymp d$, we prove that dimension-free guarantees are impossible in general.

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• arXiv stat.MLOct 22

  Metric Conformal Prediction via the Conditional Expected Local Radius

  Rui Qiu, Fang Yao, Zhou Yu

  We introduce the conditional expected local radius (CELR) and develop a new conformal prediction method for non-Euclidean responses in general metric spaces. CELR measures local conditional probability concentration, allowing prediction sets to accommodate heterogeneity and multimodality without requiring densities or a vector space structure. Its conditional distribution yields a nonconformity score that is comparable across covariate values and avoids costly transport comparisons between distance profiles. We further adapt a metric distributional random forest that handles multivariate covariates and nonlinear interactions, while a single forest fit supplies all score components, reducing computation by eliminating repeated local fitting. We establish uniform consistency of the estimators and asymptotic conditional validity under suitable regularity conditions, together with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. Numerical studies demonstrate effective uncertainty quantification across different metric spaces and substantial computational savings over the conditional profile score method.

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• arXiv cs.LGOct 22

  The Bayesian Learning Rule Beyond KL Geometry

  Sophia Sklaviadis, Wu Lin, Andre Martins, Mario Figueiredo, Thomas Moellenhoff +1

  The Bayesian learning rule (BLR) exploits the relation between Bayesian updating and the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) to derive efficient additive updates for exponential family variational posteriors. The KL geometry is powerful but restrictive: combined with posterior families with parameter-dependent support it can lead to undefined objectives. We ask which non-KL geometries preserve the additive BLR computation. Previous works that use $f$-divergences suggest that this is only possible with the KLD. Here, we show that this is not true. We show that additive information-geometric optimization algorithms can be derived for the class of mixed-space Bregman or Fenchel-Young discrepancies. These discrepancies induce generalized maximum-entropy families, dual coordinates, and generalized-BLR canonical gradient updates, recovering the classical BLR. The generalized BLR leads to new algorithms that \textit{cannot} be derived from the KL-based BLR. For the Tsallis negentropy with quadratic statistics, the generalized BLR yields bounded-support and heavy-tailed $q$-Gaussian posteriors and an easy Newton-like implementation. Experiments up to CIFAR-100 illustrate controllable…

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• arXiv cs.LGOct 22

  QuaNAS: Uncertainty-Aware Reuse of Earlier Searches for Query-Efficient Neural Architecture Search

  Brama Seta Putra Satria, Dwi Sunaryono, Misbakhul Munir Irfan Subakti, Irzal Ahmad Sabilla, Laras Suciningtyas

  Neural architecture search (NAS) on a new dataset often affords only tens of short training runs, so what the search knows before its first evaluation decides its efficiency. Yet most NAS methods start from scratch, guided at best by zero-cost proxies that are unreliable across tasks. QuaNAS treats a library of earlier searches in the same search space as explicit knowledge of uncertain reliability. Main effects of design decisions learned from this library and, secondarily, zero-cost proxies become priors over candidate architectures without any label of the new dataset. A Gaussian process starts at the prior optimum and re-estimates after every evaluation how far each prior is trusted. Under a protocol frozen before any confirmation data were seen, QuaNAS was evaluated once on 12 new image, time-series, text and tabular datasets. It lowered anytime regret on the short-training objective 2.7- to 3.9-fold relative to five pre-specified NAS baselines that start from scratch (Holm-adjusted p = 0.0012 each). Its final models matched (non-inferiority margin 0.5 pp) or exceeded matched-recipe reference models on nine datasets, as did the prior optimum, selected without a single…

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• arXiv stat.MLOct 22

  Prediction Uncertainty Controlled Computer Model Calibration

  Ryan Heejoon Byun, Dayeon Yoon, Won Chang

  Computer-model calibration is usually undertaken in service of prediction, yet neither Bayesian Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) calibration nor amortized simulation-based inference is built to control the predictive error of the calibrated simulator. When parameters are weakly identified or the data-model discrepancy is misspecified, the simulator-output bands induced by a nominal posterior level can be far from nominal. We propose a two-layer framework that targets predictive miscoverage directly. First, a conditional flow-matching model learns an amortized posterior for the calibration parameters, trained on simulator outputs perturbed with Gaussian-process discrepancies of varying structure. Second, conformal risk control arranges posterior draws for the target observation into nested candidate sets and selects the smallest one whose fixed-rank pointwise bands attain a prescribed time-averaged miscoverage on a synthetic calibration sample. Under exchangeability of calibration and target observations, the bands control expected miscoverage in finite samples. In a synthetic benchmark, the proposed bands are roughly 20% the width of KOH-MCMC bands with miscoverage near the 10% target. In…

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• arXiv cs.AIOct 22

  Multichoice Modeling: Exploring Decision Configuration Space under Uncertainty

  Mariia Kozlova, Roman Stepanova, Alexander Walzer, Andrea Saltelli

  Decision support has become sophisticated at exploring uncertainty, but much less so at representing the architecture of the decision itself. As a result, the decision space is often narrowed before uncertainty is analyzed, leaving interactions among choices and the effects of alternatives they imply largely invisible. This paper introduces multichoice modeling, a framework for making large decision configuration spaces explicit and computationally explorable under uncertainty. Drawing on the logic of rugged landscapes, we conceptualize such problems as contingent performance landscapes, where interdependent choices generate configuration-specific outcomes whose value changes across uncertain futures. The computational framework combines multidimensional decision and uncertainty spaces in a single simulation. Further, variance-based sensitivity analysis is used for identifying influential choices, and conditional distribution analysis for comparing configuration-specific performance profiles. We demonstrate the framework through three case studies: a manufacturing process upgrade, M&A strategy, and mortgage design. By contrasting conventional uncertainty-only analysis with…

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• arXiv cs.CVOct 22

  When Annotation Patterns Are Learned: Skin-Tone Dependence in Dermatology Concepts

  Y. Li, M. Bigliardi-Qi, S. Bedros, P. Bigliardi, N. Papanikolopoulos

  Concept bottleneck models (CBMs) let clinicians inspect and correct skin disease diagnoses through clinical concepts, but only if the concept annotations are reliable. We therefore audit the reliability of SkinCon, a widely used dermatology concept dataset, across skin tones. Within the same disease and with near duplicates removed, erythema is annotated far less often on dark than on light skin, with an odds ratio of 0.17. In contrast, hyperpigmentation and hypopigmentation are annotated more often, with odds ratios of 6.2 and 4.5, respectively. We refer to this pattern as tone-dependent concept annotation. An evidential concept model trained on these annotations learns the same pattern and reproduces it on unseen images. Such a model may agree with potential erythema omissions rather than contradict them. Consistent with this, three label error detectors underperform a disease-only baseline at finding erythema that dermatologist captions mention but SkinCon labels as absent. The three detectors are based on confident learning, training dynamics, and the model's own evidential uncertainty. Concept annotations should thus be audited within each subgroup before explanations built…

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• arXiv cs.AIOct 22

  Parameter Learning in Active Inference via Variational Message Passing

  Benedikt Waldeck

  Active inference casts perception, learning and planning as variational inference, where the Expected Free Energy (EFE) defines the planning objective. Recent work showed that EFE minimization can be written as Variational Free Energy (VFE) minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors, and that the resulting entropy-corrected objective is minimized by sum-product message passing (SP-MP) on modified factor functions. These formulations treat model uncertainty as inference over a finite set of known models. We extend them to planning during learning, where beliefs over the observation and transition parameters $θ_A$, $θ_B$ are Dirichlet priors. Closed-form Dirichlet updates are usually obtained by a structured mean-field factorization between parameters and states, but under exactly that factorization the information-gain corrections vanish. We resolve this by giving every factor its own parameter prior, frozen during a rollout. Conjugacy then makes each factor belief a product of a marginal over the categorical variables and a one-step Bayes posterior of the parameters. This reintroduces the datum-dependent parameter posteriors that mean-field factorization…

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• arXiv stat.MLOct 22

  Continuous-depth Deep Gaussian Processes

  Ying Li, Sanyou Wu, Zi Yang, Qiaochu Xu, Yuhao Liu +4

  Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are appealing Bayesian regression models, but their standard discrete-depth parameterization often becomes harder to optimize as depth grows. We argue that depth is better treated as a latent continuous evolution than as a long discrete stack. We therefore propose a continuous-depth formulation in which the latent representation follows a stochastic differential equation with a depth-indexed drift family equipped with a GP-based prior. This reframes the core design choice as the prior placed on that family, rather than adopting a purely neural continuous-depth parameterization as in neural ODE or neural SDE models. We study two instantiations of this idea: CDGP, a direct GP prior over the state--depth drift, and FlowDGP, a flow-evolved prior that captures richer depth dependence at lower training cost. To motivate the redesign, we analyze how the single-sample DGP objective can become increasingly sensitive under repeated layer composition, while residual DGP is a useful first repair that still remains a finite discrete construction. We also give pathwise sensitivity analysis for the continuous-depth formulation. Experiments on synthetic, benchmark,…

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• arXiv cs.AIOct 22

  Semi-Linear Gaussian Bayesian Networks: Enhancing Flexibility in Node Dependencies via penalized B-Splines

  Aitor Oviedo-Madrid, Mabel Morales-Otero, Jose Gonzalez-Gomariz, Ruben Armañanzas

  Bayesian networks for continuous variables often rely on restrictive assumptions: linear Gaussian models lack flexibility to capture nonlinear dependencies, while non-parametric approaches provide greater flexibility at a high computational cost. This creates a gap for modeling scenarios where variables are approximately Gaussian but exhibit nonlinear relationships. We introduce Semi-Linear Gaussian Bayesian Networks (SLGBN), a novel class of continuous Bayesian networks designed to bridge this gap, preserving Gaussian conditional distributions while introducing nonlinear conditional mean functions. The proposed framework provides a unified probabilistic framework combining linear Gaussian and nonlinear Gaussian conditional models within the same Bayesian network Nonlinear conditional mean functions are estimated using generalized additive models (GAMs) with penalized B-splines. We present parameter estimation procedures for both types of nodes, as well as a greedy hill-climbing algorithm for learning the network structure under the SLGBN framework. To assess its performance, we compare SLGBN with other continuous Bayesian network models, including semiparametric Bayesian…

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• arXiv cs.LGOct 22

  Learning Domain Trajectories with Flow Matching for Gradual Domain Adaptation

  Yubo Huang, Yushe Cao, Zixi Wang, Jingzehua Xu, Xin Lai +2

  Large distribution shifts remain a primary obstacle for domain generalization and unsupervised adaptation. Although gradual domain adaptation alleviates this difficulty by introducing ordered intermediate domains, most existing approaches still operate in a discrete, step-wise manner, which can accumulate errors and often relies on unstable Min--Max optimization. We propose \textbf{FlowGDA}, a flow-matching framework that models gradual adaptation as \emph{continuous} transport on a statistical manifold in a representation space. FlowGDA learns time-dependent velocity fields that induce smooth domain trajectories, using a simulation-free regression objective rather than adversarial training. To prevent semantic drift, we couple left-to-right transport between consecutive domains with a source-anchored transport and a semantic consistency loss, and we further stabilize learning via a two-stage sequential optimization scheme. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques, validating flow matching as an effective alternative for domain adaptation.

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• arXiv cs.CVOct 22

  Residual Calibration via Local Feature-Space Refinement

  Xihao Wang, Chengyao Yu, Ruixing Ming

  Deep neural networks often struggle to provide reliable confidence estimates, making post-hoc calibration essential for reliable decision-making. Existing post-hoc methods largely rely on score-based transformations, which improve marginal calibration but often fail to capture spatially varying miscalibration in local regions of the learned feature space. To address this gap, we propose Local Adaptive Probability Estimation (LAPE), a post-hoc residual calibration framework. Specifically, LAPE treats the global calibrator output as a stable anchor and refines the individual prediction by leveraging non-parametric local evidence from neighboring calibration samples. As a plug-and-play refinement module, LAPE effectively utilizes the information about feature-space geometry and can reuse the calibration data that are used to construct the global calibrator. Furthermore, we extend LAPE to the setting with multi-view inputs through Cascade Feature Augmentation Fusion (CFAF). Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed methods can improve the calibration quality of various existing baselines and remain efficient and robust across different settings.

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• arXiv cs.ROOct 21

  PhysibleMDM: Enforcing Inference-Time Physical Feasibility Constraints on Motion Diffusion Models via Noise Optimization

  Maximilian Stölzle, David Müller, Agon Serifi, Ruben Grandia, Espen Knoop +1

  Motion Diffusion Models (MDMs) can generate diverse and visually appealing human motion; yet, the resulting trajectories frequently violate physical constraints, limiting their downstream use in simulation and control. We present PhysibleMDM, a framework that promotes physical feasibility of MDM output by optimizing at inference time the diffusion noise without retraining the generative model. We introduce a set of surrogate feasibility constraints that can be evaluated without full trajectory simulation. These constraints combine kinematic checks (e.g., ground penetration, slip, and self-collision) with dynamic feasibility tests computed via an inverse-dynamics inner loop formulated as a cone program. We solve the resulting black-box noise optimization problem using the Separable Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (Sep-CMA-ES), thereby avoiding reliance on computationally expensive and discontinuous gradients. An autoregressive scheme then chains optimized segments to synthesize long motion sequences. Across 100 motion styles on an SMPL humanoid, PhysibleMDM reduces mean ground penetration, self-collision penetration, and ground slip by 75%, 92%, and 74%,…

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• arXiv cs.LGOct 21

  Towards Faithful Data Selection: Statistical Limits and Scalable Algorithms

  Ahmed Mehdi Inane, Mahdi Haghifam, Gintare Karolina Dziugaite, Ioannis Mitliagkas

  What does it mean to have an optimal data selection algorithm? Optimality is conventionally framed as finding a subset that minimizes the population error of the classifier trained only on that subset. Our starting point in this work is first to show that this goal is information-theoretically impossible unless the data selection algorithm has access to a validation set order-wise larger than the training set. This impossibility result motivates shifting from unverifiable population risk minimization to a one-sided guarantee that we refer to as faithfulness: for any candidate subset, we provide an estimable proxy that upper-bounds the difference between training on the full training data and on only the subset. We model training with the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm and bound the Kullback--Leibler divergence between subset-trained and full-data-trained parameter distributions by the trajectory-accumulated gradient discrepancy. Minimizing this discrepancy gives a principled way to select a subset. Even though the resulting problem is NP-hard, we propose a swap-based local search that decreases the bound at every accepted step. It can therefore refine the output of any selector…

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• arXiv cs.LGOct 21

  CTRL-FM: Inference-Time Structural Control for Flow-Based Virtual Sensing under Long-Horizon Node Outages

  Boshra Khalili, Andrew Smyth

  Long-horizon node outages are harder than conventional missing-value imputation because complete sensor trajectories remain unobserved for extended periods, while the usefulness of spatial and temporal dependencies varies across outage locations and operating regimes. Existing graph, diffusion, and flow-based methods typically impose a fixed structural bias, which can oversmooth abrupt changes or propagate errors from unreliable neighbors. We introduce CTRL-FM, an observation-preserving flow-matching framework that treats structural guidance as an outage-conditioned inference-time decision. A missing-only flow-matching backbone learns a conditional velocity field while keeping observed measurements exactly fixed. For each realized outage, CTRL-FM constructs self-supervised proxy outages from surviving measurements and uses their known values to select among uncontrolled, graph-dominant, temporal-dominant, and balanced control policies. The selected policy is locally modulated by graph and temporal reliability estimated exclusively from surviving observations, while boundary-anchored trends provide structural guidance. Control is applied only to missing entries and is rejected…

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• arXiv cs.LGOct 21

  Generalizing Metropolis-Hastings for DAG Sampling

  Daniele Nikzad, Mikko Koivisto

  A fundamental challenge in Bayesian network structure learning lies in efficiently approximating the posterior distribution of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). For large, high-dimensional datasets, the task remains beyond the capabilities of current methods. This work advances Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms by introducing novel moves that simultaneously resample the parents for multiple nodes of the DAG. At the core of these moves is duet sampling, a new generalization of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm that selects two proposal distributions from a pool at each iteration. One is used for generating a candidate state of the Markov chain and another for evaluating the return to the current state; both are ingredients of an appropriately crafted acceptance criterion. Pairing different proposal distributions provides additional freedom and enables constructing Markov chains that mix more efficiently than their basic Metropolis-Hastings counterparts, at no additional computational cost. Experiments show that our new moves, both individually and in combination, outperform the previous state of the art, which relies on a more restrictive pool of moves. This advantage persists…

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• arXiv cs.LGOct 21

  Velocity Ambiguity Profiles: Time-Resolved Bayes-Risk Diagnostics for Flow Matching

  Yunpeng Mei, Xiaowen Zhu, Chenyu Wang, Chenbo Xin, Hongjie Cao +3

  Flow matching trains a continuum of velocity regression problems but usually reports a loss averaged over interpolation time, obscuring which regions are limited by intrinsic ambiguity and which remain data-limited. We introduce the Velocity Ambiguity Profile (VAP), $\mathcal{A}_v(t)$, the time-local Bayes-risk floor of velocity prediction, and decompose time-resolved loss as $L_N(t)=\mathcal{A}_v(t)+R(t;N)$, where only the excess term $R(t;N)$ is reducible by more data or a different estimator. For $N$ training samples and a $K$-component mixture in the structured example, we prove two statistical benchmarks. In an intrinsic local-regression benchmark, $\mathcal{A}_v(t)$ enters the time-dependent noise factor of the standard nonparametric rate. In separated isotropic Gaussian mixtures, the Bayes velocity becomes locally affine, and a label-oracle residual-regression benchmark has parametric excess-risk scale $K\mathcal{A}_v(t)/N$, matched within the same separated residual Gaussian-location subproblem. Controlled Gaussian-mixture experiments validate this diagnostic through a dense transition sweep, calibrated oracle-to-blind and empirical-proxy audits, and a local controlled…

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