Today's trail

Structural Causal Models (SCMs) provide a principled framework for observational, interventional, and counterfactual reasoning, all of which rely on probabilistic inference. Existing frameworks either transform SCMs into alternative tractable representations or rely on…

Scenario planning is a foresight practice in which analysts construct a small set of plausible futures and prepare an organisation for each. Each scenario is a narrative that must be plausible, internally consistent, relevant and challenging, and the set as a whole must be…

AI agents keep long-term memory, much of which comes from web pages and tool results. Agent harnesses, the software that runs the model, do not record who may act on this memory, so an instruction hidden in a fetched page can be treated as the user's own instruction. We propose…