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arXiv cs.LGOct 19
FinHopper: A Progressive Multi-Hop Benchmark for Complex Financial Agents with Step-wise Evaluation
Yuxuan Wu, Miaopei Lin, Qiufang Ying, Lin Dan, Hao Zhao +7
Financial agents are expected to answer factual investment queries through open search, but financial multi-hop retrieval differs from general multi-hop QA in a crucial way: each intermediate answer is an exact typed constraint, such as an entity, date, event, or numerical indicator, that determines the next query. This strict answer-conditioned dependency makes small intermediate errors cascade into plausible but wrong search trajectories. We introduce FinHopper, a benchmark for complex financial agents with controlled reasoning depth from 1 to 6 hops, covering stocks, funds, and macroeconomic facts, with gold intermediate answers for process-level evaluation. To construct FinHopper at scale, we design a state-transition-based synthesis framework that composes verified atomic financial QA patterns into dependency-preserving chains, followed by targeted in-synthesis verification, model-ensemble checking, and public-search validation by financial experts. Experiments with 20 LLM-agent configurations show that public search tools are necessary but insufficient: performance drops sharply as hop depth increases, the best model remains far below human experts, and process-aware…
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arXiv cs.LGOct 19
ACE-Trader: Adversarial Co-Evolution for Generator-Critic Trading Systems
Chang Zhou, Jiarun Zhou, Xingtong Yu, Hong Cheng, Hui Zhang +1
Generator--critic trading systems pair an LLM-based trader that makes trading decisions with a red team agent that evaluates these decisions and provides feedback for revision. However, improving individual trading decisions does not ensure that both agents learn from experience and improve together over time. This raises an important question: how can the trader and red-Team select useful experience and learn from each other's evolving behavior? On one hand, experience that benefits decisions under one market condition may become ineffective or harmful under another. On the other hand, trading outcomes reflect both agents' actions, making it difficult to derive appropriate experience for each role. In this work, we propose ACE-Trader, an adversarial co-evolution trading framework. Specifically, we first develop separate context-dependent memory selectors that learn to identify useful experience for the current trading decision. Both selectors receive shared feedback from net-return differences between complete memory-assisted and memory-free trading pipelines, with online updates emphasizing recent outcomes. We further design a co-evolution mechanism that links role-specific…

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algorithmic trading · trading agents · trading framework102 papers9 this week
financial fraud detection · fraud detection · fraud explanation generation70 papers3 this week

Active contributors · 90 days

Recent papers

All papers in Research

arXiv cs.LGOct 19
FinHopper: A Progressive Multi-Hop Benchmark for Complex Financial Agents with Step-wise Evaluation
Yuxuan Wu, Miaopei Lin, Qiufang Ying, Lin Dan, Hao Zhao +7
Financial agents are expected to answer factual investment queries through open search, but financial multi-hop retrieval differs from general multi-hop QA in a crucial way: each intermediate answer is an exact typed constraint, such as an entity, date, event, or numerical indicator, that determines the next query. This strict answer-conditioned dependency makes small intermediate errors cascade into plausible but wrong search trajectories. We introduce FinHopper, a benchmark for complex financial agents with controlled reasoning depth from 1 to 6 hops, covering stocks, funds, and macroeconomic facts, with gold intermediate answers for process-level evaluation. To construct FinHopper at scale, we design a state-transition-based synthesis framework that composes verified atomic financial QA patterns into dependency-preserving chains, followed by targeted in-synthesis verification, model-ensemble checking, and public-search validation by financial experts. Experiments with 20 LLM-agent configurations show that public search tools are necessary but insufficient: performance drops sharply as hop depth increases, the best model remains far below human experts, and process-aware…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.LGOct 19
ACE-Trader: Adversarial Co-Evolution for Generator-Critic Trading Systems
Chang Zhou, Jiarun Zhou, Xingtong Yu, Hong Cheng, Hui Zhang +1
Generator--critic trading systems pair an LLM-based trader that makes trading decisions with a red team agent that evaluates these decisions and provides feedback for revision. However, improving individual trading decisions does not ensure that both agents learn from experience and improve together over time. This raises an important question: how can the trader and red-Team select useful experience and learn from each other's evolving behavior? On one hand, experience that benefits decisions under one market condition may become ineffective or harmful under another. On the other hand, trading outcomes reflect both agents' actions, making it difficult to derive appropriate experience for each role. In this work, we propose ACE-Trader, an adversarial co-evolution trading framework. Specifically, we first develop separate context-dependent memory selectors that learn to identify useful experience for the current trading decision. Both selectors receive shared feedback from net-return differences between complete memory-assisted and memory-free trading pipelines, with online updates emphasizing recent outcomes. We further design a co-evolution mechanism that links role-specific…

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arXiv cs.LGOct 17

CARTA: Self-Supervised Reusable Transaction Embeddings via Heterogeneous Tokenization and Cross-Attention

Shreyas K. Chandrahas, Jose Munoz, Satish Babu Bellapu

Acquiring fraud labels for payment transactions is expensive and inconsistent across tasks, and high-cardinality identifiers such as merchant names make one-hot feature pipelines infeasible at scale. We present CARTA, a self-supervised encoder that learns a compact 16-dim embedding from raw transactions without labels; the frozen embedding is then reused for label-efficient fraud probing and exploratory unsupervised risk stratification without retraining the encoder. CARTA uses type-specific projections with learned embedding tables for high-cardinality identifiers, trained with token excision and InfoNCE contrastive loss. On IEEE-CIS, its linear probe at 1% of labels exceeds a raw-feature probe at 100%; on IBM TabFormer (2M rows), its frozen embedding reaches GBDT AUPRC 0.508, above frequency encoding (0.411) and the merchant-dropping baseline (0.022), though fully-supervised CatBoost is stronger. CARTA is a label-free, reusable representation that complements task-specific supervised models.

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arXiv stat.MLOct 17

Conditional Weight of Evidence for Gradient-Boosted Credit Models: Estimation, Additivity and Its Relation to Adverse Action Reasons

Agus Sudjianto, Denis Burakov

Traditional weight of evidence assigns a credit characteristic a value based on its association with default across a population. Credit analysis also requires an assessment of that characteristic in the context of an individual applicant's record. We study conditional weight of evidence for this purpose. It measures the change in default log odds from observing a characteristic after the remaining credit information is known. Its sign identifies whether the characteristic adds adverse or favorable information for that applicant, and its magnitude measures the strength of that information. The same characteristic value can therefore receive different assessments for applicants with different payment histories or other credit attributes. We develop estimators using gradient-boosted trees and evaluate their accuracy in a bureau-style simulation. Regressions of the full model's predicted probabilities recover conditional evidence more accurately than separate models fitted to default outcomes, provided the full model is accurate. They also recover a deliberately constructed file-age effect whose direction varies with utilization and is often missed by marginal weight of evidence.…

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arXiv cs.CEOct 17

Learning volatility-adaptive forgetting via GARCH-modulated LSTM for stock price forecasting

Xin-Rui Lu, Da-Qing Zhang

Stock price forecasting is hindered by the heteroscedastic nature of financial time series, in which turbulent and tranquil regimes alternate. Although the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is widely used for this task, its gates are oblivious to such volatility variation, so memory retention remains fixed regardless of market conditions. A common remedy is to supply volatility estimates as an additional input feature, yet this leaves the internal memory dynamics untouched. Instead, volatility can serve as a direct regulatory signal over the gate activation itself. This paper presents the Gsigmoid-LSTM model, which embeds Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH(1,1))-derived volatility estimates into the LSTM forgetting gate through the Gsigmoid activation function, a volatility-adaptive variant of the sigmoid that combines a volatility adjustment factor with slope regulation via a learnable parameter. The model thereby automatically prioritizes recent information during turbulent periods while preserving long-term dependencies in stable markets. In the engineering application of daily stock price forecasting, extensive experiments, including…

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arXiv cs.AIOct 16

From SEC Filings to Financial Signals: Evaluating LLMs on Stock Market Reactions and Analyst Forecasts

Shengkun Wang, Taoran Ji, Linhan Wang, Sattar Mansi, Chang-Tien Lu +1

Form 10-Q MD&A sections combine long-form management narrative with accounting and forward-looking information. Benchmarks for financial filings commonly evaluate question answering or numerical reasoning, leaving unclear whether outputs from large language models (LLMs) align with market and analyst outcomes. We evaluate prompted, zero-shot outputs from 13 general-purpose and finance-specialized LLMs on 45,964 Form 10-Q filing events from 2001 to 2024, linking MD&A text to cross-sectional fundamental ranks, pre-filing analyst forecasts, and realized abnormal returns. The evaluation covers return ranking under five controlled information views and next-quarter EPS forecasting under direct and consensus-anchored interfaces. Relative to disclosure alone, adding cross-sectional fundamental ranks raises mean effective-date rank correlation (RankIC) by 0.0089 for effective-event-date returns and 0.0098 for following-day returns, whereas analyst-summary context provides no comparable average gain. Across the four disclosure-containing views, finance-specialized models show an effective-event-date group advantage but no statistically reliable following-day advantage, while…

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