TodayNewsResearchFieldsStacksMarketAnalytics
⌘K

Research

New papers ranked by attention, with their code, models and discussion linked. Pick a field on the left.

Research · AI field

Algorithmic trading

Found by the topic model: algorithmic trading, financial fraud detection.

Open the field page
12papers this week−63.6% vs last week98 this month

Papers

Open problems in Algorithmic trading

Open problems for Algorithmic trading are being prepared; they appear within a day.

Rising research topics

Ask the research

Sample
ByteTrail · AI and developer-tools intelligence
NewsResearchStacksFor AI agentsAPI
Fields · this week
All fields1917Multimodal327Frontier LLMs246Recursive self improvement207Inference & serving156Agents & indirect prompt injection153Neural operators131Robotics130Clinical reasoning120Forecasting time90Linear bandits66Voice AI59Character recognition OCR33AI safety32Molecular property prediction32Federated learning27Algorithmic trading12All 23 fields
WeekMonthQuarterAll
NewestMost relevant

Papers

Rising research topics

  • Diffusion priors200.0%
  • Voice AI59−11.9%
  • Character recognition OCR33−17.5%
  • Quantum machine learning23−23.3%
  • Channel state information14−30.0%
  • Algorithmic fairness7−36.4%
  • Forecasting time90−37.9%
  • Recursive self improvement207−38.4%

Papers

  • arXiv cs.LGNov 11

    Human Capital in Context: What Employment Survival Reveals About Worker-Firm Match

    Jung Ho Choi, Mario Milone

    There is no best worker in general, only a best worker for a particular firm. We develop a measure of worker-firm match quality that treats fit as a property of the pair, learned from the survival of employment relationships. A two-tower neural network embeds workers, from their career histories and current positions, and firms, from their characteristics and business descriptions, into a common space, and match quality is the cosine similarity of the two vectors. The measure takes its functional form from the skill-weights model of firm-specific human capital, and its only estimated objective, a separation hazard, from the view of the job match as an experience good. Estimated on more than a billion person-periods covering 101 million workers and 8.4 million firms, a 0.1 increase in match quality lowers the odds of separation by 48%. About a quarter of the variance of match quality is specific to the worker-firm pair, which worker-, firm-, and occupation-level measures set to zero by construction. Workers earn more when better matched, especially early in a relationship, and firms whose workforces score higher grow faster, become more profitable, and are issued more, and more…

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGNov 11

    Large Payments Model

    Natraj Raman, Abhenandhan Manoharan, Vishwasreddy Thuniki, Dhvani Kansara, Anirudh Som +10

    Payment applications such as fraud detection, authorization prediction, and payment optimization draw on overlapping transaction information. This motivates a reusable payments intelligence layer that shares learned representations and predictive signals, rather than developing predictive models independently for each task. Realizing this shared capability requires handling heterogeneous transaction fields, high-cardinality identifiers, lifecycle-dependent attributes, long histories, and rare outcomes while meeting latency and cost constraints. We present Large Payments Model (LPM), a domain-specific foundation model designed for operational use and trained from scratch on large-scale structured transaction data to learn reusable representations for payment prediction tasks. LPM employs field-specific encodings and lifecycle-aware self-supervision in two complementary architectures: the Independent variant uses hybrid masking and supports efficient per-transaction inference, while the Sequence variant incorporates entity-linked histories through compact latent representations for richer temporal context. Optional distillation enables resource-constrained deployment. We pretrain…

    PDF
  • arXiv q-fin.PMNov 10

    Conformal Risk Certificates for Portfolio Optimization Under Uncertainty: A Gated Reinforcement-Learning Approach

    Mohammad Zarei, Amirhossein MohammadpourAzari, Moslem Habibi

    Reinforcement-learning portfolio policies can optimize allocations from prices, covariances, and prior positions, yet they lack a calibrated, replayable mechanism for certifying that a proposed allocation respects a bounded risk envelope before execution. Regulators increasingly expect automated portfolio systems to provide exactly this kind of pre-trade audit trail, interpretable risk limit, and human-oversight mechanism. Gated Conformal Semantic Risk Control addresses this gap by separating return-seeking allocation from text-conditioned downside-risk verification. An instruction-tuned language model maps timestamped disclosures into schema-validated semantic risk states over macro, liquidity, earnings, and sector channels. These states induce correlated ellipsoidal factor-shock uncertainty sets whose conformal radii are calibrated by rolling finite-sample prediction over localized semantic nonconformity buckets. An asymmetric second-order cone gate then checks each raw PPO proposal against a certified worst-case semantic loss budget. The gate stays inactive for compliant proposals and intervenes only when that budget is exceeded. In walk-forward out-of-sample tests on nine…

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.CLNov 10

    Point-in-Time Encoders for Earnings Calls

    Alessio Brini

    Text encoders turn earnings calls into vectors for search, for language models that answer from retrieved passages, and for forecasting models. A live retriever can use an encoder trained once on all available text, as finance retrievers are, but a backtest needs an encoder that read no text written after the date of each vector. To address this look-ahead bias, from 412,248 calls we train vintages under four pretraining recipes, with yearly cutoffs from 2010 to 2024, and each vintage reads only text dated on or before its cutoff. We then fine-tune each vintage on the question-answer pairs of the calls themselves. The vintages we train on calls alone, with 33.8M parameters, retrieve answers on held-out calls better than the general retrievers we tested in every test quarter. Their vectors also raise by about half the rank correlation between next-day returns and forecasts built from past returns and firm size. When each vintage continues the previous one, a later vintage retrieves better on earlier quarters than the vintage available at the time, and a point-in-time language model that answers from the passages the later vintage retrieves inherits the gain. The 2024 vintage of…

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGNov 10▲ 5

    Market-Conditioned JEPA: Learning from Unpredictable Market Shocks

    Yuqi Wang, Fengyuan Liu, Mukai Li, Haochen Luo, Lei Li +1

    Much of the variation in financial time series is driven by market-wide shocks that cannot be predicted from an asset's own history. Per-asset self-supervised learning treats this variation as irreducible noise. Under a latent factor model, we show that conditioning prediction on the realized market factor makes the asset's market exposure necessary for optimal prediction, while reducing the noise against which the asset-specific component is learned. Building on this insight, we introduce Market-Conditioned JEPA (MC-JEPA), a joint-embedding predictive architecture for financial time series. During training, we construct a leave-one-out market condition for each asset from the future target embeddings of other assets and incorporate it through factor loadings derived from the asset's own representation. On 11 years of minute-level Chinese A-share data, MC-JEPA improves over per-asset JEPA across nine targets spanning returns, market exposure, risk, and liquidity, with the strongest and most statistically significant gains in exposure, risk, and liquidity. It achieves the best RankIC on all liquidity targets and on return horizons from two hours to five days, outperforming…

    Code
  • arXiv cs.LGNov 10

    Tabular Foundation Models in Financial Predictions

    Ed deHaan, Allen H. Huang

    This technical note introduces tabular foundation models (TFMs) to accounting research and evaluates their performance in one common benchmark task: predicting firms' next-year earnings changes. TFMs produce numeric predictions and learn in context, without post-release training or tuning, making them natural and easy to use for forecasting. The TFMs we study are pretrained on synthetic tabular data, so they avoid look-ahead bias from memorizing firms' outcomes. We compare Google Research's TabFM with a fine-tuned open-weight large language model developed in recent accounting research and with several tree-based models. TabFM is more accurate than all comparison models. It is also faster and less computationally intensive than the large language model. Several tree-based specifications produce predictions more quickly than TabFM, so choosing between them involves a trade-off between accuracy and speed. We conclude that TFMs have promise as a new tool for forecasting in accounting and finance. However, our evaluation is based on a single benchmark task, and no class of models is likely to dominate in all settings.

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.AINov 10

    Online-Adaptive Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Neuro-symbolic Financial Forecasting

    Brandon Rodriguez, Abel Deulofeu, Olaoluwa Adigun

    We present a neuro-symbolic framework that pairs online-adaptive Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for financial forecasting. Financial markets exhibit regime shifts and nonlinear dynamics. Existing models often trade off one of these key properties: these models capture temporal patterns but hide causal drivers, or they recover causal graphs that cannot adapt post-training. We close this gap with two frameworks. Framework I constructs an FCM from live dual-source price series and macroeconomic indicators, and adapts its edges online through an error-driven Hebbian rule. We introduce the Asymmetric Additive Residual Fusion method to seamlessly combine the FCM and LSTM predictions under Framework I. Framework II constructs a literature-grounded, LLM-augmented FCM where every edge carries a verifiable citation that gives an auditable map of factor interactions. On NASDAQ Composite data, Framework I matched the performance of the LSTM baseline on state-directional accuracy and outperformed LSTM by 7.6 percentage points on the return-sign accuracy. Framework I outperformed standalone FCM models across both evaluation metrics. The adaptive maps…

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.MANov 9

    Agent4Crypto: A Dual-Reflective and Market-Feedback-Aligned LLM-Based Multi-Agent System for Cryptocurrency Trading

    Guangyan Gan, Jiahao Li, Jiashun Wang, Lin William Cong

    Cryptocurrency markets provide a natural testbed for autonomous AI agents because they are digital-native, high-frequency, and machine-speed environments, yet existing methods often struggle with non-stationary market regimes, opaque decisions, and fixed aggregation rules. In this paper, we propose Agent4Crypto, a dual-reflective and market-feedback-aligned multi-agent system. The framework coordinates specialized agents for data collection, analysis, risk assessment, reflection, and trading, synthesizing heterogeneous signals from prices, indicators, news, and charts in an interpretable decision pipeline. Our central design is a trader-centric decision mechanism: three style-specific trader agents, Aggressive, Neutral, and Conservative, generate candidate actions and natural-language rationales from the same market context, while their influence is learned rather than manually fixed. A PPO-based gating policy dynamically allocates trader weights through a dual-reflective feedback process. One reflection stream evaluates post-trade decision quality from realized portfolio outcomes and distills reusable lessons into a Financial ReasoningBank for retrieval in subsequent trader…

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.AINov 8

    Inside the Trading Loop: Markets, Models, and Moves with LLM Agents

    Renee Jia, Di Mu, Yao Yu, Tianrui Liu

    We built a hybrid multi-agent trading system that combines large language model (LLM) analysts with momentum-based portfolio construction and rule-based execution. Company-news and macroeconomic agents return structured reports to a coordinator that sets stock weights and cash reserves. We evaluate the portfolio engine using its broker-recorded paper account, which operated with deterministic fallbacks, and compare LLM-enabled configurations through retrospective replays. From March 11 to August 28, 2026, the account returned 34.5%, compared with 14.4% for the S&P 500 fund SPY over the same dates. This raw return advantage came with a larger maximum drawdown. Reconstructed policies also finish above matched SPY and QQQ references when assessments are used in the same session or deferred to the next. Design comparisons examine cash authority, selective invocation, and response contracts. A constant-cash control gives a return estimate close to stance-based sizing, and shorter report contracts improve observed parsing but can change recommendations.

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.AINov 8

    FinCutBench: A Continually Updated Benchmark for Measuring the Temporal Boundaries of LLM Financial Knowledge

    Siyuan Li, Ke Wan, Boyong Hou, Yujie Deng, Zixuan Yuan

    In financial backtesting and other point-in-time tasks, external inputs can be restricted by date, but model parameters may retain financial facts disclosed later, introducing parametric look-ahead bias. We introduce FinCutBench, a continually updated monthly financial knowledge benchmark for measuring how far a fixed model's financial knowledge extends over calendar time. The current dataset contains 9,000 Chinese and English four-option multiple-choice questions from January 2023 to September 2026, covering Chinese and U.S. markets and four categories of financial information. We construct monthly knowledge profiles using the approximate months in which the tested facts became public. After a profile passes the decline test and knot checks, we define the FinCut Boundary as the first month when the fitted profile reaches its lower level, and report the stability of the estimated date under resampling. Boundary dates and localization precision vary across models. Using the independently measured Transition Start and Boundary as fixed references for downstream sample grouping, we find significant relative declines in U.S. asset-ranking performance and in earnings recall for Sol…

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.CLNov 8

    THEATRON: A Benchmark for Evaluating Persona Persistence in Long-Horizon LLM Decision-Making

    Yuyan Wang, Yuechen Jiang, Zhiwei Liu, Jimin Huang, Sophia Ananiadou

    Existing evaluations often test persona expression rather than whether persona information persists in extended decision-making. We introduce THEATRON, a controlled benchmark that uses financial replay to evaluate persona persistence in long-horizon sequential decision-making. In these environments, models conditioned on fixed behavioral-finance personas observe shared daily market evidence and trajectory-specific account-state feedback and make sequential decisions over multi-month trajectories. We evaluate Zero-Shot, One-Shot, and Chain-of-Thought persona injection across four LLMs, using cumulative-return and action trajectories to diagnose within-persona stability, cross-persona separability, and action collapse. Persona conditioning produces systematic behavioral shifts beyond a no-persona baseline, and persona-level separation generally exceeds the variation induced by semantically equivalent descriptions. Nevertheless, these shifts do not reliably form coherent persona-specific policies: apparently stable separation can arise from stereotyped action collapse, while diverse policies can exhibit noisy trajectory switching. These findings expose a gap between observable…

    PDF
  • arXiv cs.LGNov 8

    Beyond Node Attributes: A Controlled Evaluation and Ablation of Local Interaction Statistics for Ethereum Phishing Detection

    Thanh Dat Tran, Duy Loi Duong, Duy Luu Hoang, Minh Huy Tran, Vo Minh Thu Le +1

    Methods for detecting phishing accounts on Ethereum are usually evaluated as complete pipelines that differ in features, architecture, and training protocol, which makes the contribution of interaction information hard to isolate. This paper evaluates the Unlabeled Feature Extension (UFE), a block of 12 local interaction statistics computed from each account's incoming and outgoing call and transfer edges without reading class labels. UFE is appended to the 14 source features of HEIG-Phish and tested with six model families: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, LightGBM, Graph Attention Network, GraphSAGE, and Meta-IFD. Within each pair of Baseline and Plus variants, the data partition, model configuration, random seed, decision threshold, and sampled neighborhoods are identical; only the input feature block changes. Across 20 predetermined stratified partitions of the same 2,763 labeled externally owned accounts, UFE increased test Macro-F1 by 1.0 to 9.1 percentage points across the six models. Every pair improved on all 20 partitions, all Nadeau-Bengio corrected 95% confidence intervals lie above zero, and the false-positive rate decreased for all six models. An exact-edge…

    PDF
PDF