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arXiv cs.CLOct 16
Analyzing Occupational Gender Bias across the LLM Training Lifecycle
Manthan Gadhia, Alexander Hoyle, Karolina Stańczak
Post-training is widely assumed to reduce the social biases language models inherit from pretraining, yet direct evidence for this assumption remains mixed. In this paper, we examine how gender disparities evolve across the language modeling pipeline. In particular, we study occupational gender bias in OLMo 3, a fully open language model family, across its post-training stages by prompting each checkpoint to generate open-ended narratives about synthetic personas given their occupation and education. We consider two settings, a gender-given setting in which the profile states the persona's gender explicitly and a gender-assumed setting in which it must be inferred by the model. We find that when gender is stated, post-training increases semantic diversity for male-coded profiles, whereas for female-coded profiles the increase is smaller after SFT and not significant after DPO and RLVR. When gender is assumed by the model, post-training affects narratives about female and male personas similarly. The model's own gender assumptions, however, show a consistent female-preferential skew relative to United States labor-force demographics, except for heavily male-dominated occupations.…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.LGOct 16
Out of Support, Not Out of Reach: In-Context Learning with Unsupported Instructions and Composed Tasks
Xuhan Tong, Yuchen Zeng, Jiawei Zhang
In-Context Learning (ICL) enables pretrained LLMs to adapt to downstream tasks from a small set of input-output demonstrations, without parameter updates. Yet existing theory primarily explains ICL as identifying a latent task already represented in pretraining, leaving unclear whether ICL can succeed when either the instruction or the target task falls outside the pretraining support. We develop a theoretical framework under mild assumptions that separates these two forms of distribution shift. For target tasks represented in pretraining, we show that demonstrations can identify the task and reduce sensitivity to pretrain-supported prompt templates as their number increases. For an unsupported instruction, we show that under a fixed model-induced reference extension, demonstration evidence can dominate an $N$-independent instruction shift while preserving the exponential identification rate. We then use the same ICL framework as an interpretive lens for long-horizon target tasks that are not represented in pretraining but admit a plan that decomposes them into pretraining-supported subtasks. Applying the supported-task analysis step by step yields a standard accumulated-error…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.CLOct 16
Truth in Contrast: Calibrated Factual Evidence from Language Model Likelihoods
Ponhvoan Srey, Jason Lucas, Pittawat Taveekitworachai, Junyoung Lee, Anh Tuan Luu
Large Language Models (LLMs) encode substantial factual knowledge. Yet, estimating confidence in factual claims reliably remains challenging. We study likelihood-based factual confidence from the complementary perspectives of discrimination and calibration across multilingual factual statements. Specifically, we instantiate contrastive generative likelihoods as Contrastive Factual Evidence (CFE), which compares the likelihood of the same claim under competing factual and non-factual conditions, and derive its probabilistic counterpart, the Contrastive Factual Posterior (CFP). We show analytically that CFP calibration depends on the differential error between the two surrogate conditionals, allowing errors shared across them to cancel and yield tighter calibration bounds. Empirically, CFP substantially improves calibration while maintaining factual discrimination comparable to its strongest competitor. Nonetheless, discrimination is uniformly weak across methods in lower-resource languages, which simultaneously undermines the utility of the measured calibration. To this end, we interpret a likelihood geometry, within which an evidence-bearing direction is induced, along with an…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.AIOct 16
Trapped in Your Story: Evaluating Narrative-Induced Sycophancy in Large Language Models
Runtai Yang, Dandan Zhu, Kaiwei Zhang, Guangtao Zhai
Large language models (LLMs) are known to exhibit sycophancy by adjusting their responses toward users' expressed views. However, real users often justify their opinions through reasons, personal experiences, causal explanations, and broader narratives, raising the question of whether such narratives can further steer model judgments. We construct a controlled benchmark of 500 debatable questions across ten domains, where the user stance is held fixed while its justification is systematically varied without introducing new task-relevant evidence. Each question is instantiated under 11 matched conditions: one neutral baseline and five mirrored narrative levels for each of two opposing positions, yielding 5,500 evaluation instances. We evaluate seven LLMs and observe substantial differences in narrative-induced agreement. The effect is not monotonic with narrative elaboration: personal experience can reduce agreement, whereas causal framing and worldview-based synthesis increase it. Controlled GPT-5.1 ablations further show that causal framing produces the strongest positive effect, while claim-preserving bullet presentation also increases agreement over paragraph form. These…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.CLOct 16
Perceive, Solve, Reason: Progressive Capability Formation in Time Series-LLMs
Xin Qiu, Junlong Tong, Wei Zhang, Xiaoyu Shen
Large language models (LLMs) can now perceive, describe, and reason about images and audio, yet time series understanding remains underestimated: most work uses LLMs as forecasters and classifiers, reasoning studies are few and narrow, and no suite trains and evaluates the full range of capabilities. In this paper, we build the first such suite, with 337K training and 44K evaluation samples across three progressive capabilities, Perceive, Solve, and Reason, and use it to ask how time series should enter an LLM that must master all three, and in what order. We find that a dedicated encoder is essential: with one, a 4B model surpasses GPT-4o on every perception attribute we test, whereas textualizing the series costs 8--10 points in reasoning accuracy. The capabilities then build on one another: learning them in order beats mixing the same data and rivals reasoning-only training with over three times the reasoning data, but only when an encoder is used. Analyses further reveal that capabilities are transferred through distinct network depths rather than simply stacked, and that a stage converged on its own benchmark is not necessarily ready for the next. Distilled into a simple…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.CLOct 16
MuninAI: A Self-Hosted Agentic Framework for Independent Research Groups
Markus Fischer, Jens Meiler, Matthias Elgeti
Research groups that want a language model grounded in their own literature face a choice between hosted services that receive their unpublished work and self-hosted deployments that keep the data local but give the model no access to the corpus. Munin is an open-source framework for a self-hosted scientific assistant that indexes a group's corpus and its citation graph, and wraps whichever open-weight model the group can serve in an agent harness with specialised reading, search, and computation tools. We claim that the harness, rather than the specific model, is what makes the system useful on domain literature, and we ship the evaluation suite that tests this claim with the software. On 199 paired literature questions, the harness more than doubles the accuracy of the base model, from 0.387 to 0.874 (+0.487, 95% CI [0.407, 0.568]), while naive retrieve-then-answer scores below the unaided model on every backbone tested. Under the harness, roughly twice as many answer claims trace to a passage the model read itself as with fixed top-5 retrieval. When the source paper for a question is removed from the corpus, the system abstains on about nine in ten of the questions it had…
PDF arXiv

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arXiv cs.CLOct 16
Analyzing Occupational Gender Bias across the LLM Training Lifecycle
Manthan Gadhia, Alexander Hoyle, Karolina Stańczak
Post-training is widely assumed to reduce the social biases language models inherit from pretraining, yet direct evidence for this assumption remains mixed. In this paper, we examine how gender disparities evolve across the language modeling pipeline. In particular, we study occupational gender bias in OLMo 3, a fully open language model family, across its post-training stages by prompting each checkpoint to generate open-ended narratives about synthetic personas given their occupation and education. We consider two settings, a gender-given setting in which the profile states the persona's gender explicitly and a gender-assumed setting in which it must be inferred by the model. We find that when gender is stated, post-training increases semantic diversity for male-coded profiles, whereas for female-coded profiles the increase is smaller after SFT and not significant after DPO and RLVR. When gender is assumed by the model, post-training affects narratives about female and male personas similarly. The model's own gender assumptions, however, show a consistent female-preferential skew relative to United States labor-force demographics, except for heavily male-dominated occupations.…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.LGOct 16
Out of Support, Not Out of Reach: In-Context Learning with Unsupported Instructions and Composed Tasks
Xuhan Tong, Yuchen Zeng, Jiawei Zhang
In-Context Learning (ICL) enables pretrained LLMs to adapt to downstream tasks from a small set of input-output demonstrations, without parameter updates. Yet existing theory primarily explains ICL as identifying a latent task already represented in pretraining, leaving unclear whether ICL can succeed when either the instruction or the target task falls outside the pretraining support. We develop a theoretical framework under mild assumptions that separates these two forms of distribution shift. For target tasks represented in pretraining, we show that demonstrations can identify the task and reduce sensitivity to pretrain-supported prompt templates as their number increases. For an unsupported instruction, we show that under a fixed model-induced reference extension, demonstration evidence can dominate an $N$-independent instruction shift while preserving the exponential identification rate. We then use the same ICL framework as an interpretive lens for long-horizon target tasks that are not represented in pretraining but admit a plan that decomposes them into pretraining-supported subtasks. Applying the supported-task analysis step by step yields a standard accumulated-error…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.CLOct 16
Truth in Contrast: Calibrated Factual Evidence from Language Model Likelihoods
Ponhvoan Srey, Jason Lucas, Pittawat Taveekitworachai, Junyoung Lee, Anh Tuan Luu
Large Language Models (LLMs) encode substantial factual knowledge. Yet, estimating confidence in factual claims reliably remains challenging. We study likelihood-based factual confidence from the complementary perspectives of discrimination and calibration across multilingual factual statements. Specifically, we instantiate contrastive generative likelihoods as Contrastive Factual Evidence (CFE), which compares the likelihood of the same claim under competing factual and non-factual conditions, and derive its probabilistic counterpart, the Contrastive Factual Posterior (CFP). We show analytically that CFP calibration depends on the differential error between the two surrogate conditionals, allowing errors shared across them to cancel and yield tighter calibration bounds. Empirically, CFP substantially improves calibration while maintaining factual discrimination comparable to its strongest competitor. Nonetheless, discrimination is uniformly weak across methods in lower-resource languages, which simultaneously undermines the utility of the measured calibration. To this end, we interpret a likelihood geometry, within which an evidence-bearing direction is induced, along with an…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.AIOct 16
Trapped in Your Story: Evaluating Narrative-Induced Sycophancy in Large Language Models
Runtai Yang, Dandan Zhu, Kaiwei Zhang, Guangtao Zhai
Large language models (LLMs) are known to exhibit sycophancy by adjusting their responses toward users' expressed views. However, real users often justify their opinions through reasons, personal experiences, causal explanations, and broader narratives, raising the question of whether such narratives can further steer model judgments. We construct a controlled benchmark of 500 debatable questions across ten domains, where the user stance is held fixed while its justification is systematically varied without introducing new task-relevant evidence. Each question is instantiated under 11 matched conditions: one neutral baseline and five mirrored narrative levels for each of two opposing positions, yielding 5,500 evaluation instances. We evaluate seven LLMs and observe substantial differences in narrative-induced agreement. The effect is not monotonic with narrative elaboration: personal experience can reduce agreement, whereas causal framing and worldview-based synthesis increase it. Controlled GPT-5.1 ablations further show that causal framing produces the strongest positive effect, while claim-preserving bullet presentation also increases agreement over paragraph form. These…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.CLOct 16
Perceive, Solve, Reason: Progressive Capability Formation in Time Series-LLMs
Xin Qiu, Junlong Tong, Wei Zhang, Xiaoyu Shen
Large language models (LLMs) can now perceive, describe, and reason about images and audio, yet time series understanding remains underestimated: most work uses LLMs as forecasters and classifiers, reasoning studies are few and narrow, and no suite trains and evaluates the full range of capabilities. In this paper, we build the first such suite, with 337K training and 44K evaluation samples across three progressive capabilities, Perceive, Solve, and Reason, and use it to ask how time series should enter an LLM that must master all three, and in what order. We find that a dedicated encoder is essential: with one, a 4B model surpasses GPT-4o on every perception attribute we test, whereas textualizing the series costs 8--10 points in reasoning accuracy. The capabilities then build on one another: learning them in order beats mixing the same data and rivals reasoning-only training with over three times the reasoning data, but only when an encoder is used. Analyses further reveal that capabilities are transferred through distinct network depths rather than simply stacked, and that a stage converged on its own benchmark is not necessarily ready for the next. Distilled into a simple…
PDF arXiv
arXiv cs.CLOct 16
MuninAI: A Self-Hosted Agentic Framework for Independent Research Groups
Markus Fischer, Jens Meiler, Matthias Elgeti
Research groups that want a language model grounded in their own literature face a choice between hosted services that receive their unpublished work and self-hosted deployments that keep the data local but give the model no access to the corpus. Munin is an open-source framework for a self-hosted scientific assistant that indexes a group's corpus and its citation graph, and wraps whichever open-weight model the group can serve in an agent harness with specialised reading, search, and computation tools. We claim that the harness, rather than the specific model, is what makes the system useful on domain literature, and we ship the evaluation suite that tests this claim with the software. On 199 paired literature questions, the harness more than doubles the accuracy of the base model, from 0.387 to 0.874 (+0.487, 95% CI [0.407, 0.568]), while naive retrieve-then-answer scores below the unaided model on every backbone tested. Under the harness, roughly twice as many answer claims trace to a passage the model read itself as with fixed top-5 retrieval. When the source paper for a question is removed from the corpus, the system abstains on about nine in ten of the questions it had…
PDF arXiv

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Frontier LLMs

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Frontier LLMs

Recent papers

Analyzing Occupational Gender Bias across the LLM Training Lifecycle

Out of Support, Not Out of Reach: In-Context Learning with Unsupported Instructions and Composed Tasks

Truth in Contrast: Calibrated Factual Evidence from Language Model Likelihoods

Trapped in Your Story: Evaluating Narrative-Induced Sycophancy in Large Language Models

Perceive, Solve, Reason: Progressive Capability Formation in Time Series-LLMs

MuninAI: A Self-Hosted Agentic Framework for Independent Research Groups

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Recent papers

Analyzing Occupational Gender Bias across the LLM Training Lifecycle

Out of Support, Not Out of Reach: In-Context Learning with Unsupported Instructions and Composed Tasks

Truth in Contrast: Calibrated Factual Evidence from Language Model Likelihoods

Trapped in Your Story: Evaluating Narrative-Induced Sycophancy in Large Language Models

Perceive, Solve, Reason: Progressive Capability Formation in Time Series-LLMs

MuninAI: A Self-Hosted Agentic Framework for Independent Research Groups