Beyond the Leaderboard: Counterfactual Diagnosis of End-to-End and VLA Driving Policies Under Domain Shift

Ruolin Yang, Zilin Huang, Buoyue Wang, Zhengyang Wan, Yuhao Luo +2

End-to-end and vision-language-action (VLA) driving policies are compared by leaderboard rank, but a rank reports an outcome, not the behaviour behind it, so it predicts poorly how a policy will behave at a new site. On six released policies, rank on nuScenes open-loop error or on NAVSIM's leaderboard does not carry over to scenes with a pedestrian near the ego corridor at a new site. We propose a counterfactual check-up: a few hundred real frames, each edited two ways (pedestrian removed, or re-lit by a night-style perturbation), every edit verified by an independent detector, and the change in the planned trajectory read as a diagnosis rather than a score. From these edits two causal axes are read, and five exams built on them separate what a score merges: how far the policy plans to drive, whether seeing the pedestrian buys safety, whether that response scales with danger, whether the plan moves when nothing requires it, and how much an irrelevant lighting change moves it. On 246 NAVSIM near-pedestrian scenes, in the cells where the pedestrian lies on the planned path only 1.9% of responses are genuine avoidance, and under our open-loop protocol the median clearance change is…