Anatomy of a Closed-Loop Collapse: A Causal Case Study of a Compressed VLA Policy

Fengze Jia

Compressed manipulation policies can pass offline evaluation while failing in closed-loop execution; this dissociation is established in prior work and is not our claim. We contribute a causal anatomy of one naturally occurring case. An 8-layer distillation of Octo-Base retains 86% of parameters, passes every offline check we applied (0.996 and 1.000 teacher-ratios on the family's own validation metrics), and collapses in closed loop: 0/72 vs. the teacher's 40/72 on a simulated WidowX pick-and-place task. The collapse is structured, not diffuse: early task stages degrade gradually (the student moves the object at 90% of the teacher's rate and grasps at 55%), while transport-to-target fails categorically, at 0% in every training variant. Paired action-trace forensics isolate the signature: a negative, late-heavy $z$ residual, roughly 10x its post-repair magnitude, and persistent across the base distillation and both continuation branches. Four standard therapies fail under matched controls: continued training and in-domain offline data leave success at zero, even though the latter measurably improves marginal action statistics; command-level compensation recovers nothing at any…