Explainable Neuro-Fuzzy Prediction for Trustworthy Decision-Making in Maritime

Dionisis Kalogeropoulos, Georgia Sovatzidi, Dimitris K. Iakovidis

Predicting when maritime systems require maintenance can be critical, avoiding hazards and costly consequences. To address this problem, this paper proposes an explainable decision-making framework that integrates a neuro-fuzzy prediction model with a two-stage explainable component. The first stage of this component produces feature-attribution explanations, using gradient-based saliency maps, and the second stage extracts local rules using a fuzzy decision tree. The proposed framework is generic and can be integrated into any deep learning-based approach, rendering it explainable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fuzzy logic-based framework enabling both feature-level and local rule-based explanations of black box models. This approach aims to foster trustworthiness in decision making through user-understandable machine inferences. The performance of the proposed framework using a deep residual-based neural backbone is evaluated on various general-purpose public benchmark datasets, and its utility in maritime is demonstrated in the context of early fault detection in a naval propulsion system dataset. The results indicate that it can provide predictions…