Finite-Sample Probabilistic Safety Certification for AI-Based Grid-Edge Coordination

Yihong Zhou, Hanbin Yang, Thomas Morstyn

Coordinating large population of flexible grid-edge devices can alleviate the need for time-consuming and capital-intensive network upgrades, and AI-based control methods such as multi-agent reinforcement learning or imitation learning are promising in their real-time decision scalability. However, system operators still need an independent and rigorous way to decide whether a given AI system is safe enough for deployment. This paper develops a finite-sample probabilistic safety certification framework for black-box AI decision models in closed-loop grid operation. The central idea is to reduce the complete input--AI--grid evaluator workflow to a binary unsafe outcome under an operator-defined safety specification, and then use exact binomial inference to certify the corresponding unsafe operation probability. Given a set of held-out calibration scenarios, the framework returns the tightest one-sided upper certificate and an accept/reject deployment criterion that controls the probability of false safety certification. Because the certification is for the calibration distribution that may deviate from the future operation, we further combine the nominal certificate with…