Robust to Which Model Change? A Unified Evaluation of Robust Counterfactual Explanations

Marcin Kostrzewa, Maciej Zięba

Robust counterfactual explanations promise recourse that still works after the model behind it changes. Whether they keep that promise depends on what the change is. A small perturbation of the parameters, retraining on new data, and a new architecture are different events, and each existing method is evaluated against the one it was built for. Reported robustness scores, therefore, answer different questions and cannot be compared. We propose a unified cross-family evaluation protocol that holds factual instances and generated counterfactuals fixed while testing every method against the same eight types of model change. The benchmark compares six robust methods and two standard baselines on four tabular datasets. It characterizes every changed classifier through its outputs and reports empirical robustness together with coverage, base validity, and proximity. We find that relative performance and failure modes vary across change families. Bounded parameter perturbations change 0.95\% of test predictions on average, compared with 4.9\% for bootstrap retraining. Methods with guarantees for these perturbations do not necessarily transfer to other changes. RobX transfers most…