Same Probe, Different Numbers: Are Activation Probes Robust to Inference-Time Numerical Non-Determinism?

Alizishaan Khatri

Activation probes are increasingly used to monitor LLMs in deployment. A probe is typically trained under one inference configuration, then used under whatever batch size and numerical precision the serving stack uses. Because common GPU kernels are not batch-invariant and floating-point formats round differently, the activations seen at deployment are not the ones the probe was trained on. We measure what that costs for Llama-3.1-8B, Qwen3-8B and Gemma-3-4B across batch sizes 4, 8 and 16 and float32, bfloat16 and float16, training 768 probes on one configuration, evaluating each on every other, and comparing verdicts example by example. Probes are stable, but aggregate accuracy is the wrong instrument for showing it: it understates how many verdicts change by a factor of two to nine. At the prompt, accuracy never moves by more than 0.47 percentage points across 1,392 transfers and only 0.076% of verdicts change; under float32 with only the batch size varied, none of 201,960 verdicts change. During decoding the flip rate rises to 2.8%, but rows whose realised tokens matched flip in only 0.12-0.15% of cases, while rows whose tokens diverged flip in 12.9%: the cause is the text,…