RSD-Poker: Structure-Adaptive and Shift-Robust Risk-Utility Certification for Residual Policies in Imperfect-Information Games

Miaobo Hu, Shuhao Hu, Xiaobo Guo, Xin Wang, Bokun Wang +3

Residual policy adaptation provides a lightweight way to modify a strong reference policy, but a shared scale and a fixed subgroup partition can hide heterogeneous degradation and become fragile when the deployment mixture of information states changes. We introduce RSD-Poker, a structure-adaptive and shift-robust certification framework that freezes a bank of residual families and scales, learns a policy-visible partition on an independent structure split, and freezes that partition before calibration labels are joined. Each candidate-group pair receives a weighted simultaneous upper certificate for anchor-relative risk and a lower certificate for weak-response utility. A robust group-to-candidate map is then selected over a predeclared uncertainty set of deployment group proportions. Under independent calibration units drawn from each frozen group's law, a candidate bank and partition fixed before calibration, and invariant within-group conditionals, the selected map satisfies its declared mixture-robust risk budget and utility certificate with probability at least $1-ζ_{risk}-ζ_{util}$. The information contract supports both a teacher-backed transform and a teacher-free…