Independent Verification Paths Are Not Independent: A Case Study of Common-Mode Failure in a Satellite Catalogue Pipeline

Fabio Rovai

A common safeguard for a data pipeline is redundant computation: derive each published number by two routes built on different technology and refuse to exit when they disagree. We report one such gate failing, in a cross-catalogue integrity study of two open registers of Earth-orbiting objects. A gate comparing a set-based Python path with SPARQL queries over the emitted RDF graph printed ALL CROSS-CHECKS AGREE on seven counts. Three were wrong, one overstated more than fourfold (932 against 220). Both paths imported the same constants, which encoded a misreading of the source's status vocabulary, so the error was common-mode and the gate could not see it. We give the mechanism, an object-level ledger reconciling every figure, and three checks that go back to the source's documentation, measured on the defective code and on its correction. We then checked that correction against each object's phase history, held in a source file the pipeline never read. The correction was also wrong: 42 of its 261 disagreements are artefacts, and none of our three checks flagged them. Finally, in a controlled replication with three pinned models and tools disabled, 72 of 75 paths generated on…