Prompts Live on an Arc: Gaussian Curricula in Fisher--Rao Coordinates for Rollout-Efficient GRPO

Mei Okonkwo, Pixel Nomand, Julian Berg, Elena Voss, Lena Park +3

Group relative policy optimization (GRPO) learns only from prompts whose sampled responses disagree: a group that is entirely correct or entirely incorrect has zero reward variance, contributes no gradient, and still consumes its rollouts. Prompt-selection methods reduce this waste by steering sampling toward intermediate pass rates, but they choose the target, its width, and the uncertainty model heuristically, in raw pass-rate or logit coordinates. We show that GRPO comes with a natural coordinate for pass rates: the arc length $ψ=\arcsin\sqrt{p}$ on the Bernoulli Fisher--Rao manifold. In arc length, the expected GRPO update is uniform up to two boundary ramps; the probability of a zero-variance group is bounded by two Gaussian boundary layers of width $1/\sqrt{2G}$; pass-rate evidence has constant noise; and the gradients of the pass@$k$ and pass$^k$ objectives are Gaussians whose center and width follow from $k$ in closed form. A prompt curriculum for GRPO is therefore a Gaussian in arc length, and choosing its center amounts to choosing the objective. We turn this observation into ARCUS, a drop-in sampler that tracks every prompt with a Kalman filter in arc length, scores…