Bayesian Fine-tuning Yields Language Models that are as Bayesian as their Beliefs Allow

Polina Tsvilodub, Andreas Waldis, Linlu Qiu, Tal Linzen, Michael Franke

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require reasoning about hidden variables from a few observations, for which Bayesian inference is the normatively correct solution. While supervised fine-tuning of an LM on the outputs of an optimal $\textit{Bayesian}$ model leads to near-Bayesian behavior, standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on the true answers for the task falls short of it. But behavior alone does not tell us $\textit{why}$ tuning on a $\textit{Bayesian}$ or an $\textit{oracle}$ (true answers) signal differs: whether the resulting LM represents Bayesian beliefs, acts on them, or turns them into a choice the way Bayes' rule does. To compare them, we formulate increasingly demanding requirements for an LM to count as a Bayesian decision maker, spanning its behavior, representations, and computations, and test them on a flight recommendation task. The Bayes-trained LM acts Bayesian, encodes quantities of Bayes' rule in its middle layers, and uses the encoded belief for the recommendation to a certain extent. The oracle-trained LM differs from it both in the beliefs it holds and whether it reads beliefs out into recommendations. Exchanging beliefs…