Rethinking Probability-Based Reinforcement Learning From Posterior Concentration

Shiu-Hong Kao, Yubo Zhao, Zhenyu Tian, Pengzhan Sun, Yicong Li +1

Verifier-free reinforcement learning with probability-based rewards offers a promising way to train LLMs on general reasoning tasks where external verifiers are unavailable. Yet the reliability of these rewards, especially in long-horizon reasoning, remains underexplored. This work identifies a length-dependent failure mode of probability rewards, which we call the Posterior Concentration Phenomenon (PCP). We show that the probability of a reference answer conditioned on a reasoning trace often collapses to a low-variance interval as the trace becomes lengthy. This phenomenon results in nearly indistinguishable rewards, which, under GRPO-based settings, makes probability-based policy optimization unstable and inefficient. Motivated by this, we propose Reinforcement Learning with Concentration-aware Posterior Rewards (RLCPR), a verifier-free RL framework to explicitly account for PCP for better optimization stability and token efficiency. It has two components: uncertainty-aware data sampling, which reduces concentration-prone rollouts before generation, and concentration-aware regularization, which penalizes unnecessarily long traces when posterior rewards collapse. Extensive…