No Model Required: Text Entropy Rate Filtering Mitigates Iterative Fine-Tuning Collapse

Lewis Mitchell

Iterative fine-tuning on synthetic data causes \emph{model collapse}: output diversity narrows as rare patterns are progressively lost, a signature most visible as phrase-level repetition. Existing mitigations either require model log-probabilities, an external oracle, or continued access to real human data. Here we develop a new approach grounded in mathematical information theory: the non-parametric Kontoyiannis entropy rate estimator $h_k$, computed entirely from raw text via match-length statistics, with no model of any kind. We show that this is in fact a \emph{superior} training-data filter on text-diversity metrics in a fully-synthetic, single-lineage fine-tuning setting. In a six-generation QLoRA collapse experiment on Llama-3.1-8B, logprob-based filtering (the most established model-access-requiring baseline) provides no significant text-diversity benefit on any metric ($p > 0.23$), whereas $h_k$-filtering yields $+42\%$ unique trigrams, $+30\%$ vocabulary, and $-19\%$ repetition (all $p < 0.001$). We validate $h_k$ as a cross-domain entropy proxy ($β= 0.924$, $R^2 = 0.746$) and collapse detector ($ρ= +0.454$, $p < 0.0001$) across 4~domains, 2~temperatures,…