Learning Closure of Dynamical Systems with Kernel Ridge Regression

Evan Habbershaw, John Harlim, Senwei Liang

We develop a closure modeling framework for identifying missing components of dynamical systems using Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR). The framework addresses two classes of closure problems: difference-equation closures arising in ODE and PDE settings, and algebraic closures arising from moment closure in kinetic equations. For the first class, we derive an error bound in an ODE setting that quantifies contributions from time integration, approximation of unresolved scales, and interpolation required to couple unresolved-scale effects to the resolved solver. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz-63 system and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation demonstrate accurate long-horizon predictions and substantial improvements over an LSTM-based closure model. For the second class, we consider moment closure for a one-dimensional kinetic equation by modeling discrepancies between kinetic and macroscopic fluxes as a function of the resolved macroscopic variables. We compare global KRR models based on PCA coordinates with spatially local models. While the global model performs well for unimodal initial conditions, its accuracy deteriorates for bimodal initial conditions. Spatially local models…