Rethinking Epistemic Uncertainty in Node Classification through Information Growth

Emma Meneghini, Francesco Ferrini, Bruno Lepri, Andrea Passerini, Veronica Lachi

Epistemic uncertainty should decrease as additional information about the data-generating process (DGP) becomes available to the predictor. Yet, existing graph evidential deep learning (EDL) methods for node classification typically construct epistemic uncertainty from graph-specific properties and evaluate it on downstream tasks such as out-of-distribution detection, which do not test its reducibility as information about the DGP increases. To make reducibility directly testable, we introduce a statistical framework for studying epistemic uncertainty under information growth. Our framework specifies an information-growth experimental protocol and a consistency criterion for epistemic predictors, while using projective graph DGPs to ensure that growing graphs, which in general need not provide increasing information about the same DGP, constitute coherent observations of the same underlying process. We show that EDL methods do not explicitly estimate data uncertainty arising from a single finite graph observation and instead regulate epistemic uncertainty through model hyperparameters, precluding consistency, as corroborated by controlled information-growth experiments. As an…