Probabilistic Pedestrian Forecasts from a Handheld Phone: World-Frame Heat Maps, Visual-Inertial Height Drift, and Evaluation without Ground Truth

Danial Safaei

A pedestrian with a phone could be shown where nearby people will be in the next few seconds, if the forecast stays on the ground while the phone moves, is calibrated, and needs only a monocular camera and visual-inertial odometry (VIO). We build and evaluate such a system. People are detected, lifted onto the floor by ray-plane intersection, tracked in a gravity-aligned metric frame, and forecast as per-step probability maps by a small U-Net trained with a negative log-likelihood (NLL) loss on bird's-eye (SDD) and first-person (EgoTraj-Bench) trajectories. On handheld ADVIO recordings, vertical VIO drift and the user's own changes of level silently rescale monocular ground positions (by 87% within 90 s on one clip; on another, all tracks are lost for the last 31% of the clip); keeping the camera's height above the floor constant under a low-pass-filtered altitude avoids this, though it lags on escalators. On the SDD and EgoTraj-Bench test splits, the final forecaster lowers the NLL at 4.8 s by 1.51 and 1.37 nats relative to a fitted constant-velocity Gaussian. Lacking ground truth for people in handheld video, we score forecasts against the tracker's own later raw measurements.…