LiLib: Lifelong Air-to-Ground Path-Loss Prediction on UAVs via a Drift-Triggered Model Library

Minh Tran

UAVs that act as relays or base stations need accurate air-to-ground path-loss predictions for rate adaptation and placement, but propagation conditions change as a UAV moves between suburban, urban and high-rise areas, and the same areas are often revisited. Online regressors that adapt by forgetting must relearn each environment from scratch, whereas a single model trained on all data averages incompatible regimes. We propose LiLib, a lightweight continual-learning scheme in which a UAV maintains a small library of recursive-least-squares experts. A windowed residual test detects drift; a short probe phase then either reuses the best stored expert or creates a new one. In simulations based on four standard urbanization profiles, LiLib reduces prediction RMSE from 5.89 dB (best sliding-window baseline) to 4.03 dB (p < 0.001), lowers the error shortly after a return to a known environment from 12.3 dB to 5.7 dB, and recovers 99% of the throughput of a regime-aware oracle in rate adaptation. The library stores four experts in under 0.5 KB, and identifies regimes with 92% purity without labels. When a second UAV is initialized with the library of a peer, its error after environment…