Identifiability of a dissipative knowledge-dynamics model: exact recovery under designed excitation, degeneration on observational data

Arman Kostanian, Armen Beklaryan

Human learning is a dissipative dynamical process: mastery accumulates through practice, decays through forgetting, and propagates across interdependent concepts. We model it as a nonlinear dissipative system of ordinary differential equations whose parameters are mechanistically meaningful (a transfer-of-practice matrix, per-concept forgetting rates, and a saturating practice-response gain), and we study when those parameters can actually be recovered from data. For two concepts, we prove a constructive structural identifiability theorem for the associated inverse problem under explicit excitation conditions, together with monotonicity, robustness and L-stability results. We derive an implicit L-stable scheme and a batched solver numerically equivalent to the per-trajectory formulation yet two orders of magnitude faster. The empirical study is two-sided. Under the theorem's excitation conditions, synthetic recovery is exact. On large observational benchmarks it is not. An apparently strong recovery, with forgetting rates correlating with topic error rates at Spearman $ρ= 0.83$, is refuted by four controls: it survives destroying the temporal order of the data, is matched by a…