Predictive Multiplicity in Cell-Fate Assignment: Label-Free Rashomon Sets and the Limits of Per-Cell Certification

Arjun Bhupatiraju, Abhiram Bhupatiraju

Single-cell trajectory inference maps transcriptomic measurements onto developmental continua, yet configurations that fit the data equally well can assign conflicting cell fates. FateMultiplicity is a label-free framework that constructs a statistically admissible model set, or Rashomon set, without lineage labels, by evaluating model discrepancy on cross-fitted held-out genes under non-inferiority testing calibrated against random-seed variation. Multiplicity is large and depends more on the diversity of the model space than its size: twelve configurations of a second algorithm expose 20.0% of cells where twenty-four of the first expose 3.8%. Whether the per-cell certified fate margin FM yields more reliable assignments than the fitted model already provides is then tested, and it does not. On simulation ground truth, on the same cells, FM discriminates misassignment at AUC 0.682, against 0.965 for the baseline configuration's own decision margin (p = 0.003) and 0.854 for a seed-dispersion baseline. Informativeness is governed by the breadth of the admitted set, not its cardinality: at cardinality four, seed refits give 0.933 and hyperparameter-perturbed sets 0.701. Relaxing…