Desertification Forecasting in Semi-Arid Regions: Using Deep Learning to Probe the Observability Limits of Land Degradation Dynamics

Filipe Moura Da Silva, Cláubio Landney Lima Bandeira

Forecasting desertification has received far less attention than mapping it. We use a convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) trained on ten annual Earth Observation (EO) variables (2000-2023) over the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil, on a 256x206 grid at roughly 2.2 km resolution, to measure how much of the year-to-year evolution of a MapBiomas-derived degradation index (IDV) can be predicted from satellite data. The network predicts a bounded change on top of the last observed state, is trained in two stages (single-step, then recursive rollout) and is evaluated on a contiguous spatial and temporal holdout. State-wide mean IDV rose from 0.238 to 0.350 between 2000 and 2023, about 0.005 per year, but cell-level change is dominated by year-to-year jumps, and a gradient-boosting model given all channels explains only 4.7% of its variance. Against this ceiling, the ConvLSTM lowers RMSE relative to persistence by 1.6% one year ahead and 4.4% four years ahead in a held-out southern band (p < 0.001), beats persistence with a constant drift and reproduces 53-69% of the regional drift. Drift-aware baselines only help from the third year onward, by up to 4.4% in RMSE at six years. An earlier…