History, Adaptation, and Hidden Gain: Two Prospective Tests of Learned Predictive Control in a Synthetic Neural Population

Mahesh Reddy Pagadala

We study learned one-step predictive control of a synthetic population of 64 leaky integrate-and-fire neurons whose light sensitivity is scaled by a hidden factor s, using two prospective confirmations on plants simulated only after the analysis was frozen. In the first (50 plants, 11 conditions), removing the 200-ms input-output history substantially worsened a parameter-count-matched neural predictor at low and moderate gain (s = 0.6, 0.8; RMSE rose by 2.47 Hz at s = 0.6, 97.5% CI 2.43-2.51). In secondary comparisons, recursively adapted ARX had the lowest mean error of the deployable controllers in 10 of 11 conditions, tuned PI with anti-windup matched or beat the network for s >= 0.7, and training for 10,000 rather than 900 epochs lowered prediction error but worsened control. Development work suggested the network's learned action sensitivity did not track the hidden gain. A second protocol (50 new plants, 9 sensitivities, 2 noise levels) confirmed three pre-specified predictions at the primary noise level. Re-estimating a single multiplicative input gain recovered 87% (95% CI 86-88%) of the benefit of full adaptive ARX. Supplying that online estimate to the network as an…