Longitudinal Learner Participation Profiling in Online Learning: Heterogeneous Consensus Clustering under Unequal Observation Windows

David Otoo-Arthur, Terence L. van Zyl

Learning management system traces are clustered to identify participation profiles, but unequal observation windows may cause profiles to reflect duration rather than participation alone. Using 16,448 complete learner--course sequences from 4,599 learners across 152 courses at a South African public university, we evaluated eight participation measures. All remained related to observation-window length even when expressed as rates or shares. Course-grouped adjustment reduced these relationships. Five retained measures were evaluated using K-means, Gaussian mixtures, Ward agglomerative clustering and K-medoids, with standardised measures and principal-component summaries. Evidence supported a broad two-profile grouping and a more detailed adjusted four-profile consensus: Gradually declining, Early-concentrated, Cyclical variable and Sustained active. Profile membership accounted for 2.87% of the variation in duration in the primary consensus, versus 38.18% using original measures. Mean assignment support was 0.739; 8.35% of assignments fell below 0.50, with greatest uncertainty in Sustained active. Two week-by-week sequence analyses agreed strongly with each other but only…