Two-stage Residual Learning for Modelling Strength-Informed Optimisation of Thermal Systems

Talha Ansar, Waqar Muhammad Ashraf, Abdulelah S. Alshehri, Omar Bayomie

Aggregate performance metrics do not identify local modelling inaccuracies in machine learning (ML) surrogates used for thermal-system optimisation. This study assesses local modelling strength through validation-based reliability screening and post-optimisation residual assessment. A two-stage residual learning (TSRL) framework, built on artificial neural networks (ANNs), is developed for modelling-strength-informed and domain-constrained optimisation of thermal systems. Within the TSRL framework, a base ANN predicts the process output, and a residual ANN learns the signed residuals left by the base ANN. The TSRL framework is implemented on two case studies of thermal systems, including 817 simulation observations of a crude distillation unit and operating records from a 395 MW industrial gas turbine. The TSRL framework reduces the test root mean square error (RMSE) from 10.3 g/s to 4.7 g/s for Fuel Oil in the refinery dataset and from 151 kJ/kWh to 105 kJ/kWh for turbine heat rate (THR). The base ANNs trained within TSRL are embedded in domain-constrained optimisation problems, and the modelling strength at each computed solution is assessed using the locked residual-score…