Argument Graph Uncertainty: Quantifying Uncertainty from the Logical Structure of Reasoning Chains

Simon Baur, Sumire Honda, Wojciech Samek, Jackie Ma

Reliable uncertainty estimation is essential for deploying large language models in high-stakes reasoning tasks, yet most existing approaches rely on expensive sampling strategies or shallow token-level signals that ignore the internal logical structure of model outputs. We introduce Argument Graph Uncertainty, a post-hoc framework for multiple choice question tasks, that estimates model confidence directly from the logical structure of a single chain-of-thought reasoning trace. Our method uses either a lightweight instruction-tuned model or a simple deterministic rule to segment the reasoning chain into propositional units, then applies a NLI model to infer relational edges and construct two complementary argument graphs over these segments. The resulting edge scores are aggregated into a Dirichlet posterior over answer options, whose concentration yields calibrated uncertainty estimates reflecting both local step-to-step coherence and global logical consistency across the reasoning trace. Evaluated on GPQA, MMLU-Pro and TruthfulQA, our method consistently surpasses token-based and consistency-based uncertainty baselines across multiple reasoning models. We further demonstrate…