The Certification Exponent: Instance-Optimal Sequential Certification of Policy Improvement from History Dependent Logs

Rui Wang

Before a new policy replaces a deployed one, we often want a certificate, computed from logged episodes, that it is better. We ask how many episodes such a certificate needs when the logging policy is known but history-dependent, and the error probability must stay below $δ$ in every environment consistent with the logs. The answer is an exponent $K^\star$: the smallest KL divergence from the logged law to a law with the same logged action probabilities under which the target does not improve. No sound certifier stops in fewer than $\log(1/δ)/K^\star$ expected episodes, at any $δ$, and whenever $0<K^\star<\infty$ a plug-in Kelly certifier attains this rate to first order as $δ\to0$. Coverage, computed by one backward induction, decides whether certification is impossible ($K^\star=0$), possible at a finite rate, or possible in a constant number of episodes ($K^\star=\infty$). By convex duality, the optimal certificate bets on the importance-weighted advantage and also places fair bets on the logged actions, so doubly robust control variates act as hedges rather than estimators. As a consequence, no choice of off-policy estimator changes $K^\star$, a coverage ceiling explains the…