Data-driven forecasting of tropical cloud forest phenology: A dynamical systems and machine learning hybrid approach

Pedro Garcia, Saul Flores

Forecasting how species and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical challenge in ecology, particularly in hyper-diverse tropical biomes. While traditional phenological models often rely on preconceived functional forms, this study introduces a data-driven hybrid approach that integrates dynamical systems theory with machine learning to forecast flowering and fruiting cycles. Using a robust 35-year dataset from a Venezuelan tropical cloud forest, we reconstruct the system's state-space using delay vectors inspired by Takens' theorem, incorporating climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation. The model was trained using Gaussian Process Regression, providing both point predictors and explicit uncertainty estimates. Our results clearly suggest that the synergy between dynamical systems and machine learning effectively captures the non-linear complexities of ecological time series. Specifically, the model achieved higher predictive accuracy for flowering and fruiting. This hybrid framework offers a scalable tool for anticipating phenological mismatches and informing conservation strategies in the face of global environmental change.