AirMPA: A Meteorology-to-Pollution Adapter for Global Air Quality Forecasting

Yiheng Wang, Kai Zheng, Yuetan Lin, Fanglu Fan, Chenliang Tao +3

Accurate real-time forecasting of atmospheric pollutants is essential for reducing exposure risks and improving public health. Traditional numerical forecasting systems suffer from incomplete parameterizations, uncertain inputs, and high computational cost. Existing deep learning approaches improve efficiency, but often entangle meteorological and pollutant variables within unified forecasting frameworks, limiting flexibility and pollutant-specific representation learning. To address these challenges, we propose AirMPA, a decoupled autoregressive framework for meteorology-to-pollution forecasting. AirMPA predicts 13 atmospheric pollutants at 0.4° spatial resolution and 12-h temporal resolution using meteorological fields, emission priors, and historical pollutant concentrations. The model is built on an improved Swin-Transformer architecture with zonal release attention and dual-branch fusion, enabling more effective modeling of global transport continuity and heterogeneous pollutant dynamics. During training, AirMPA uses the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) as meteorological forcing, while during inference…