Characterizing Post-Incident Software Evolution

Matt Pope, Jonathan Sillito

BACKGROUND: After a software incident, organizations attempt to improve the reliability of their software systems by conducting post-incident analysis and identifying actions to prevent or mitigate similar future incidents. Despite the importance of this activity, there is a limited understanding of the nature and characteristics of the software evolution triggered by the analysis process. AIMS: This study seeks to bridge this gap by providing the first empirical characterization of post-incident software evolution. We aim to establish an understanding of how these changes manifest, specifically focusing on how their characteristics (such as effort, location, and timing) differ from standard maintenance and evolutionary changes. METHOD: We conducted a mixed-methods analysis of a 10-year longitudinal dataset from Wikimedia, examining 1,302 tasks and 2,203 code reviews. We categorized these changes across five dimensions: target, effort, abandonment rate, prioritization, and time-to-resolve. RESULTS: Our results show that the post-incident evolution is distinct from other change types. Post-incident changes are more time-consuming, with a median completion time over twice that of…