Parameter-Efficient Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models for Electrical Load Forecasting

Aliullah, Julian Oelhaf, Edouard Fouché, Jessica Deuschel, Christian Bergler +2

Accurate electrical load forecasting supports power-system operation across countries, regions, cities, and buildings, but repeated development of target-specific models is costly. Time series foundation models (TSFMs) provide reusable pretrained backbones, although multi-domain pretraining may not fully capture load-specific characteristics. This paper compares pretrained inference, full fine-tuning, and low-rank adaptation (LoRA) in terms of forecasting accuracy and adaptation efficiency across four electrical load aggregation levels. MOIRAI 1.0 Large serves as the primary backbone, while Chronos-2 assesses whether the findings transfer across model families. The evaluation covers both in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) settings and examines whether compact adaptation provides consistent gains over strong pretrained checkpoints. Pretrained foundation models outperform the implemented seasonal naive and XGBoost baselines across the evaluated aggregation levels. On MOIRAI Large, rank-16 LoRA reduces normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) by 7.5% on average while updating 3.146 million parameters, about 1% of the model, and retains most of the improvement from full…