From Association to Decision Value: Testing Paired Instruction Dependence for VLA Corpus Selection

Nurmukhambet Serikbayev, Abdul Basit, Muhammad Shafique

Choosing among robot demonstration corpora is a ranking problem: an upstream diagnostic must preserve which candidates produce better downstream policies, not merely correlate with average performance. We study paired instruction dependence, the rate at which a demonstrator changes its first decision when only the goal changes. Across 136 independently seeded quadruped-navigation corpora, predictions developed on 56 corpora are evaluated prospectively on 80 held-out corpora. The audit is reliable and associated with downstream paired correctness, and lowers mean absolute prediction error when added to a correctness-aware baseline, but the primary proper-log-score increment is +0.059 nats (95% corpus-bootstrap CI [-0.027, 0.133]) and the prespecified top-20% comparison does not establish an incremental selection gain. An exploratory response decomposition suggests a structural source of this predictive-ranking mismatch: under the tested predictor specification, separating both-correct and both-wrong responses yields larger held-out gains than their unsigned switch statistic. Seed-to-seed agreement indicates that the held-out endpoint retains recoverable rank signal. These results…