Decision Making and Ride Comfort Evaluation Based on Lane-Change Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles

Mohamed Manzour, Aditya Kumar, Rubén Izquierdo, Miguel Ángel Sotelo

Predicting surrounding vehicles' lane-change intentions enables autonomous vehicles to anticipate potential hazards and respond proactively rather than relying solely on reactive maneuvers. This study investigates the benefits of integrating lane-change prediction, based on knowledge graph embeddings and Bayesian inference, into autonomous vehicle decision-making. Three driving strategies are evaluated in risky merging scenarios simulated in CARLA: reactive driving, prediction-based longitudinal action, and prediction-based lateral action. The proposed prediction model anticipates the surrounding vehicle's lane change approximately 3-4 seconds before its occurrence, allowing the ego vehicle to adjust its behavior accordingly. In the representative simulation records, reactive driving results in a collision accompanied by aggressive deceleration. In contrast, prediction-based longitudinal action initiates early braking to establish a safe gap, while prediction-based lateral action performs a lane change when a safe adjacent lane is available. Both predictive strategies avoid collisions in the evaluated records. Compared with reactive driving, peak deceleration before impact is…