Learning Population Dynamics with Variational Doob-Wasserstein Flow

Weizhu Qian

This paper introduces a novel simulation-free framework for learning unbalanced population dynamics on the Riemannian Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao (WFR) manifold, termed Variational Doob-Wasserstein Flow (VDWF), built upon the theory of the unbalanced mean-field Schrödinger bridge (MFSB). First, by independently learning a geometry model equipped with a data-dependent metric, our model captures the intrinsic geometric structure of population dynamics. Furthermore, leveraging Doob's h-transform, the proposed method incorporates boundary information to improve flow-based trajectory inference. For unbalanced transport, a growth model is employed to learn the dynamics while constructing intermediate mass samples in the WFR space without simulation. Additionally, we analyze the convergence rate of the proposed framework using a uniform Log-Sobolev inequality (LSI). Finally, we validate the proposed approach on multiple real-world datasets, demonstrating competitive performance in learning both balanced and unbalanced population dynamics compared with state-of-the-art methods.