Not One Belief: Answer Payloads, Persistence, and Dissociated Confidence Signals in Conversational Question Answering

Duc-Vinh Tran

Conversational QA systems should fix errors when users push back and signal which answers to trust. We split each follow-up into its speech act (re-ask, agree, or challenge) and its payload (an answer string, correct or not), and measure four confidence signals on the same transcripts: verbalized confidence, length-normalized likelihood, a frozen hidden-state probe, and P(True). Answers change when the user supplies an answer string and almost never under the speech act alone: in every retained full-size cell, the correct answer converts at least four times as many wrong answers as re-asking or agreement. The four signals disagree. On Qwen2.5-7B the frozen probe rises with answer persistence rather than truth; this holds on held-out questions, with Llama-3-8B (cleaned answers) as support, but not on four other models. Among 81 Qwen2.5-7B errors that survive one re-ask, re-asking, a fresh chat, or abstain repair almost none, while a gold answer repairs 75-95%. In two preregistered replications, every repair rate without an answer string stays below 0.15; a larger post-hoc rerun excludes 0.15 except for the empty elicit. With BM25 TriviaQA evidence, sentences that contain the…