Causal DAG-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Long-Term Physical Activity Maintenance: Using Prior Data to Inform Future Deployment

Xueqing Liu, Young Hyun Cho, Bhanu Teja Gullapalli, Predrag Klasnja, Susan Murphy

Digital health interventions can provide scalable, personalized support for physical activity (PA), yet sustaining PA over the long-term remains difficult. Because affective experiences with PA are important for activity sustainment, we developed an online reinforcement learning (RL) system for the forthcoming ADAPT factorial trial that personalizes twice-daily activity suggestions aimed at improving affective associations with PA. This setting poses several challenges: participant-specific data are scarce relative to the candidate state space, important states and rewards are partially observed, interventions are frequent while the primary outcome is measured weekly, and activity suggestions can both improve PA-related experiences and increase intervention burden. We address these challenges using an expert-specified causal directed acyclic graph as an integrated RL design tool, guiding state construction, estimation of partially observed states, delayed credit assignment, and representation of beneficial and adverse intervention pathways. We further construct a longitudinal simulator calibrated from a prior micro-randomized trial to compare candidate RL designs under realistic…