Decision and System One models in rheumatology: accuracy and calibration on specialty-training examination questions and diagnostic case vignettes

Alfredo Madrid-García, Diego Benavent, Fabian Lechner, Phillip Kremer, Johannes Knitza +1

Objectives: To evaluate the accuracy and calibration of Decision and System One models on rheumatology examination questions and diagnostic vignettes. Methods: Two benchmarks were analysed: 172 rheumatology questions from Spanish specialty-training examinations (expanded RheumaMIR dataset) in Spanish and English, and 70 English diagnostic vignettes from RheumBench with 5-18 candidate diagnoses, 52 of which included the reference diagnosis. Four System One models (Jev 1.13, Clef, Microsoft-Decision-1, Laya) and GPT-6 Luna (OpenAI Decisions API) were compared with GPT-6 Sol and two local generative models. The primary outcome was accuracy; secondary outcomes included calibration, discrimination, accuracy of answers with probability >=0.90 and language differences. Results: In RheumaMIR, Jev's accuracy was 93.0% in Spanish and 91.9% in English, below GPT-6 Sol (99.4%; Holm-adjusted P<=0.005); GPT-6 Luna reached 97.7%, Clef 91.9-93.0% and Microsoft-Decision-1 86.0-87.8%, without detectable language differences. Jev's answers with probability >=0.90 (76-77% of answers) were 98.5% correct. In RheumBench, accuracy was lower: GPT-6 Sol 76.9%, GPT-6 Luna 63.5%, Clef 59.6%, Jev 50.0% and…