When Model Complexity Matters in Cross-Subject Naturalistic fMRI Prediction

Junhao Zhao, Jacob Kang, Colin Kurniawan, David Simberg, Nan Xu

Increasingly complex neural models predict blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses to naturalistic stimuli, but the predictive value of this added complexity remains unclear. We ask when pretrained stimulus representations help and how much downstream complexity is needed, with and without recent measured BOLD history. We compare linear diagnostic references and nonlinear predictors across HCP movie fMRI (154 subjects), BOLD Moments (10 subjects), and Algonauts 2025 (4 subjects). Under a shared offline protocol, models are fitted on training subjects and evaluated on held-out subjects viewing largely familiar stimuli, without refitting. Pretrained visual features generally improve prediction over raw pixels; for linear autoregression, this advantage becomes more pronounced over longer rollouts (recursive predictions without additional measured BOLD). Measured BOLD history provides substantial gains that generally diminish {as rollouts lengthen}. Nonlinear stimulus-only predictors can improve on linear readouts, whereas linear autoregression provides a strong history-conditioned baseline. Controls examine context length, regularization, fitting procedures, and model…