Detecting Weather Fronts from Satellite Observations: What Does Reanalysis Add?

Ioannis Dravilas, Miruna Stoicescu, Roope Tervo, Carlos Horn, Oriol Hinojo Comellas +3

Weather fronts are transition regions between air masses with contrasting thermodynamic properties and are associated with mid-latitude precipitation and severe weather. We investigate machine learning (ML) methods for detecting weather fronts and quantify the contribution of reanalysis data to performance. We compare two configurations of the same ML model for pixel-wise frontal classification over the North Atlantic and Europe: (1) using only geostationary infrared satellite observations, and (2) additionally using 28 ERA5 reanalysis fields. The satellite-only model achieves a neighbourhood critical success index at a 150 km tolerance (CSI@150) of $0.402$, which lies within the range of agreement between analyses from different meteorological services. The satellite$+$ERA5 model achieves $0.575$, an improvement of $0.173$. Our analysis shows that low-level winds are the least predictable from the satellite representation ($R^2 = 0.23$, compared with $0.88$ for temperature), while removing winds or moisture causes the largest decreases in detection performance.