JEPAhead: From Inpainting to Causal Forecasting for Urban Driving

Daniel G. P. Petrini, Davi Pincinato, Fabio Grassiotto, Pedro L. F. Prado, Alexandre F. S. Osorio +2

We fine-tune a pre-trained V-JEPA1 predictor from bidirectional latent inpainting to action-free causal forecasting while keeping the encoder frozen. Using contiguous past observations, horizon-aligned targets, and group-level causal attention, the model forecasts eight future token groups, corresponding to sixteen frames, in one forward pass. On CARLA Town12, it retrieves the correct future among 591 candidates in 69.0% of cases, compared with 55.3% for persistence, with greater gains at longer horizons and on tokens exhibiting greater change. It also outperforms a compact predictor trained from scratch with six times fewer parameters. Semantic analysis indicates driving-relevant information in predicted features: a fixed linear probe trained on real encoder tokens achieves 0.16 mIoU on patches undergoing semantic-class changes, versus 0.13 for persistence. Vehicle-conditioned retrieval improves over persistence by 15 percentage points at the longest horizon. Pixel-space evaluation shows modest L1 gains but little improvement under LPIPS, motivating direct evaluation through latent and semantic measures alongside an oracle reconstruction reference. These findings support further…