Forecasting cumulative intraoperative hypotension burden: patient-disjoint evaluation of quantile boosting and alert policies

Yunfan Zhao

Background: Binary hypotension forecasts do not describe the depth and duration of future low pressure. Burden forecasts may support graded early warning, but better forecast scores need not yield more useful alerts. Objective: To evaluate conditional quantiles of the next 15-minute mean arterial pressure (MAP) deficit below 65 mmHg and distinguish forecasting performance from episode-warning performance. Methods: Public VitalDB numeric arterial MAP was reduced to 10-second medians without forward filling. Subject-disjoint training, validation and test splits included 70,402, 14,270 and 15,575 labeled windows. We compared climatology, calibrated persistence, last-MAP-only boosting, and direct and residual quantile boosting, with and without additional MAP-history features. Patient-weighted pinball loss and subject-bootstrap intervals evaluated forecasting. Validation selected alert thresholds before a hash-recorded test evaluation. Results: In the test split, the prespecified residual-versus-persistence comparison at the 90th percentile yielded losses of 2.256 and 2.900 mmHg-min, respectively (difference -0.644; 95% interval -0.814 to -0.487). Direct prediction achieved 2.196,…