Mismeasuring the Life of a Line of Code: Lessons Learned the Hard Way

Pavel Gurov

Studies of how long lines of code live, including lines written by AI agents, rest on choices that look technical: when a line counts as gone, what to do with lines still alive, whether to pool projects, and how to evaluate a model. We studied 32.5 million line births in 120 TypeScript repositories and got several of these choices wrong at first. For ten of them, we compare the result as we first computed it, or as commonly done, with the result after correction. All ten change conclusions, or would have. Six were our own mistakes. Counting moved and rewritten lines as dead shortens a line's median life from 3.0 years to 1.3. Counting any change as a death hides an outcome that can be predicted: within-project concordance falls from 0.71 to 0.56. Regressing observed lifetimes discards three quarters of the lines. Keeping rewritten lines at risk makes protective effects grow with age. Lines are born and removed together, so treating them as independent misleads twice: nine of fifteen effects look significant only under that assumption, and a split by file makes a barely predictable outcome look good (within-project concordance 0.71 instead of 0.61). After the corrections, removal…