Pulse waveform morphology encodes haemodynamic signatures of impending stroke

Cheng Ding, Jiaming Liu, Jian Wu, Hongxia Xu, Daoqiang Zhang

Stroke is a disorder of the circulation, yet the haemodynamic state that immediately precedes it has rarely been observed, because continuous physiological recordings before a stroke are seldom available. Photoplethysmography (PPG), recorded by every pulse oximeter and by hundreds of millions of wearable devices, captures the peripheral pulse beat by beat, but its morphology is largely discarded. Here we ask whether pulse waveform morphology encodes haemodynamic signatures of impending stroke. Using in-hospital stroke as a natural experiment that provides continuous PPG before physician-adjudicated stroke recognition, we studied intensive-care (MIMIC-III, $n=176$) and emergency-department (MC-MED, $n=154$) cohorts and described each beat with interpretable descriptors of pulse timing, amplitude, contour and variability. At a nominal 360-min horizon, morphology separated pre-recognition from stable windows with $F_1$ scores of 0.941 and 0.989 (sensitivity 0.998 and 0.980), with models transferred unchanged to the second cohort, and outperformed heart rate alone on identical windows. The signature was dominated by systolic crest time and its change from each patient's own baseline,…