Characterizing Predictive Multiplicity in Ranking and Its Fairness Implications

Ainhize Barrainkua, Mikel Malagón

Prediction problems often admit competing models that achieve comparable performance yet produce conflicting outputs, a phenomenon known as predictive multiplicity. While this challenge has been extensively studied in classification tasks, its implications remain largely unexplored in ranking frameworks, which are critical for high-stakes societal decisions such as the allocation of welfare resources and social assistance. This paper investigates the phenomenon of predictive multiplicity in score-based ranking problems. We introduce formal definitions to capture multiplicity in ranking settings, supported by foundational theoretical guarantees. Furthermore, we examine the dual relationship between predictive multiplicity and algorithmic fairness in ranking problems: we analyze how model multiplicity can act as a potential source of unfairness, while demonstrating how exploring this decision space provides a principled avenue for discovering less discriminatory rankings. Finally, we complement our theoretical contributions with insightful empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets, validating our analytical findings and illustrating their practical…