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  • arXiv cs.LGNov 11

    Human Capital in Context: What Employment Survival Reveals About Worker-Firm Match

    Jung Ho Choi, Mario Milone

    There is no best worker in general, only a best worker for a particular firm. We develop a measure of worker-firm match quality that treats fit as a property of the pair, learned from the survival of employment relationships. A two-tower neural network embeds workers, from their career histories and current positions, and firms, from their characteristics and business descriptions, into a common space, and match quality is the cosine similarity of the two vectors. The measure takes its functional form from the skill-weights model of firm-specific human capital, and its only estimated objective, a separation hazard, from the view of the job match as an experience good. Estimated on more than a billion person-periods covering 101 million workers and 8.4 million firms, a 0.1 increase in match quality lowers the odds of separation by 48%. About a quarter of the variance of match quality is specific to the worker-firm pair, which worker-, firm-, and occupation-level measures set to zero by construction. Workers earn more when better matched, especially early in a relationship, and firms whose workforces score higher grow faster, become more profitable, and are issued more, and more…

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  • arXiv cs.LGNov 11

    Large Payments Model

    Natraj Raman, Abhenandhan Manoharan, Vishwasreddy Thuniki, Dhvani Kansara, Anirudh Som +10

    Payment applications such as fraud detection, authorization prediction, and payment optimization draw on overlapping transaction information. This motivates a reusable payments intelligence layer that shares learned representations and predictive signals, rather than developing predictive models independently for each task. Realizing this shared capability requires handling heterogeneous transaction fields, high-cardinality identifiers, lifecycle-dependent attributes, long histories, and rare outcomes while meeting latency and cost constraints. We present Large Payments Model (LPM), a domain-specific foundation model designed for operational use and trained from scratch on large-scale structured transaction data to learn reusable representations for payment prediction tasks. LPM employs field-specific encodings and lifecycle-aware self-supervision in two complementary architectures: the Independent variant uses hybrid masking and supports efficient per-transaction inference, while the Sequence variant incorporates entity-linked histories through compact latent representations for richer temporal context. Optional distillation enables resource-constrained deployment. We pretrain…

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  • arXiv q-fin.PMNov 10

    Conformal Risk Certificates for Portfolio Optimization Under Uncertainty: A Gated Reinforcement-Learning Approach

    Mohammad Zarei, Amirhossein MohammadpourAzari, Moslem Habibi

    Reinforcement-learning portfolio policies can optimize allocations from prices, covariances, and prior positions, yet they lack a calibrated, replayable mechanism for certifying that a proposed allocation respects a bounded risk envelope before execution. Regulators increasingly expect automated portfolio systems to provide exactly this kind of pre-trade audit trail, interpretable risk limit, and human-oversight mechanism. Gated Conformal Semantic Risk Control addresses this gap by separating return-seeking allocation from text-conditioned downside-risk verification. An instruction-tuned language model maps timestamped disclosures into schema-validated semantic risk states over macro, liquidity, earnings, and sector channels. These states induce correlated ellipsoidal factor-shock uncertainty sets whose conformal radii are calibrated by rolling finite-sample prediction over localized semantic nonconformity buckets. An asymmetric second-order cone gate then checks each raw PPO proposal against a certified worst-case semantic loss budget. The gate stays inactive for compliant proposals and intervenes only when that budget is exceeded. In walk-forward out-of-sample tests on nine…

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  • arXiv cs.CLNov 10

    Point-in-Time Encoders for Earnings Calls

    Alessio Brini

    Text encoders turn earnings calls into vectors for search, for language models that answer from retrieved passages, and for forecasting models. A live retriever can use an encoder trained once on all available text, as finance retrievers are, but a backtest needs an encoder that read no text written after the date of each vector. To address this look-ahead bias, from 412,248 calls we train vintages under four pretraining recipes, with yearly cutoffs from 2010 to 2024, and each vintage reads only text dated on or before its cutoff. We then fine-tune each vintage on the question-answer pairs of the calls themselves. The vintages we train on calls alone, with 33.8M parameters, retrieve answers on held-out calls better than the general retrievers we tested in every test quarter. Their vectors also raise by about half the rank correlation between next-day returns and forecasts built from past returns and firm size. When each vintage continues the previous one, a later vintage retrieves better on earlier quarters than the vintage available at the time, and a point-in-time language model that answers from the passages the later vintage retrieves inherits the gain. The 2024 vintage of…

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  • arXiv cs.LGNov 10▲ 5

    Market-Conditioned JEPA: Learning from Unpredictable Market Shocks

    Yuqi Wang, Fengyuan Liu, Mukai Li, Haochen Luo, Lei Li +1

    Much of the variation in financial time series is driven by market-wide shocks that cannot be predicted from an asset's own history. Per-asset self-supervised learning treats this variation as irreducible noise. Under a latent factor model, we show that conditioning prediction on the realized market factor makes the asset's market exposure necessary for optimal prediction, while reducing the noise against which the asset-specific component is learned. Building on this insight, we introduce Market-Conditioned JEPA (MC-JEPA), a joint-embedding predictive architecture for financial time series. During training, we construct a leave-one-out market condition for each asset from the future target embeddings of other assets and incorporate it through factor loadings derived from the asset's own representation. On 11 years of minute-level Chinese A-share data, MC-JEPA improves over per-asset JEPA across nine targets spanning returns, market exposure, risk, and liquidity, with the strongest and most statistically significant gains in exposure, risk, and liquidity. It achieves the best RankIC on all liquidity targets and on return horizons from two hours to five days, outperforming…

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  • arXiv cs.LGNov 10

    Tabular Foundation Models in Financial Predictions

    Ed deHaan, Allen H. Huang

    This technical note introduces tabular foundation models (TFMs) to accounting research and evaluates their performance in one common benchmark task: predicting firms' next-year earnings changes. TFMs produce numeric predictions and learn in context, without post-release training or tuning, making them natural and easy to use for forecasting. The TFMs we study are pretrained on synthetic tabular data, so they avoid look-ahead bias from memorizing firms' outcomes. We compare Google Research's TabFM with a fine-tuned open-weight large language model developed in recent accounting research and with several tree-based models. TabFM is more accurate than all comparison models. It is also faster and less computationally intensive than the large language model. Several tree-based specifications produce predictions more quickly than TabFM, so choosing between them involves a trade-off between accuracy and speed. We conclude that TFMs have promise as a new tool for forecasting in accounting and finance. However, our evaluation is based on a single benchmark task, and no class of models is likely to dominate in all settings.

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  • arXiv cs.AINov 10

    Online-Adaptive Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Neuro-symbolic Financial Forecasting

    Brandon Rodriguez, Abel Deulofeu, Olaoluwa Adigun

    We present a neuro-symbolic framework that pairs online-adaptive Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for financial forecasting. Financial markets exhibit regime shifts and nonlinear dynamics. Existing models often trade off one of these key properties: these models capture temporal patterns but hide causal drivers, or they recover causal graphs that cannot adapt post-training. We close this gap with two frameworks. Framework I constructs an FCM from live dual-source price series and macroeconomic indicators, and adapts its edges online through an error-driven Hebbian rule. We introduce the Asymmetric Additive Residual Fusion method to seamlessly combine the FCM and LSTM predictions under Framework I. Framework II constructs a literature-grounded, LLM-augmented FCM where every edge carries a verifiable citation that gives an auditable map of factor interactions. On NASDAQ Composite data, Framework I matched the performance of the LSTM baseline on state-directional accuracy and outperformed LSTM by 7.6 percentage points on the return-sign accuracy. Framework I outperformed standalone FCM models across both evaluation metrics. The adaptive maps…

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  • arXiv cs.MANov 9

    Agent4Crypto: A Dual-Reflective and Market-Feedback-Aligned LLM-Based Multi-Agent System for Cryptocurrency Trading

    Guangyan Gan, Jiahao Li, Jiashun Wang, Lin William Cong

    Cryptocurrency markets provide a natural testbed for autonomous AI agents because they are digital-native, high-frequency, and machine-speed environments, yet existing methods often struggle with non-stationary market regimes, opaque decisions, and fixed aggregation rules. In this paper, we propose Agent4Crypto, a dual-reflective and market-feedback-aligned multi-agent system. The framework coordinates specialized agents for data collection, analysis, risk assessment, reflection, and trading, synthesizing heterogeneous signals from prices, indicators, news, and charts in an interpretable decision pipeline. Our central design is a trader-centric decision mechanism: three style-specific trader agents, Aggressive, Neutral, and Conservative, generate candidate actions and natural-language rationales from the same market context, while their influence is learned rather than manually fixed. A PPO-based gating policy dynamically allocates trader weights through a dual-reflective feedback process. One reflection stream evaluates post-trade decision quality from realized portfolio outcomes and distills reusable lessons into a Financial ReasoningBank for retrieval in subsequent trader…

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  • arXiv cs.AINov 8

    Inside the Trading Loop: Markets, Models, and Moves with LLM Agents

    Renee Jia, Di Mu, Yao Yu, Tianrui Liu

    We built a hybrid multi-agent trading system that combines large language model (LLM) analysts with momentum-based portfolio construction and rule-based execution. Company-news and macroeconomic agents return structured reports to a coordinator that sets stock weights and cash reserves. We evaluate the portfolio engine using its broker-recorded paper account, which operated with deterministic fallbacks, and compare LLM-enabled configurations through retrospective replays. From March 11 to August 28, 2026, the account returned 34.5%, compared with 14.4% for the S&P 500 fund SPY over the same dates. This raw return advantage came with a larger maximum drawdown. Reconstructed policies also finish above matched SPY and QQQ references when assessments are used in the same session or deferred to the next. Design comparisons examine cash authority, selective invocation, and response contracts. A constant-cash control gives a return estimate close to stance-based sizing, and shorter report contracts improve observed parsing but can change recommendations.

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  • arXiv cs.AINov 8

    FinCutBench: A Continually Updated Benchmark for Measuring the Temporal Boundaries of LLM Financial Knowledge

    Siyuan Li, Ke Wan, Boyong Hou, Yujie Deng, Zixuan Yuan

    In financial backtesting and other point-in-time tasks, external inputs can be restricted by date, but model parameters may retain financial facts disclosed later, introducing parametric look-ahead bias. We introduce FinCutBench, a continually updated monthly financial knowledge benchmark for measuring how far a fixed model's financial knowledge extends over calendar time. The current dataset contains 9,000 Chinese and English four-option multiple-choice questions from January 2023 to September 2026, covering Chinese and U.S. markets and four categories of financial information. We construct monthly knowledge profiles using the approximate months in which the tested facts became public. After a profile passes the decline test and knot checks, we define the FinCut Boundary as the first month when the fitted profile reaches its lower level, and report the stability of the estimated date under resampling. Boundary dates and localization precision vary across models. Using the independently measured Transition Start and Boundary as fixed references for downstream sample grouping, we find significant relative declines in U.S. asset-ranking performance and in earnings recall for Sol…

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  • arXiv cs.CLNov 8

    THEATRON: A Benchmark for Evaluating Persona Persistence in Long-Horizon LLM Decision-Making

    Yuyan Wang, Yuechen Jiang, Zhiwei Liu, Jimin Huang, Sophia Ananiadou

    Existing evaluations often test persona expression rather than whether persona information persists in extended decision-making. We introduce THEATRON, a controlled benchmark that uses financial replay to evaluate persona persistence in long-horizon sequential decision-making. In these environments, models conditioned on fixed behavioral-finance personas observe shared daily market evidence and trajectory-specific account-state feedback and make sequential decisions over multi-month trajectories. We evaluate Zero-Shot, One-Shot, and Chain-of-Thought persona injection across four LLMs, using cumulative-return and action trajectories to diagnose within-persona stability, cross-persona separability, and action collapse. Persona conditioning produces systematic behavioral shifts beyond a no-persona baseline, and persona-level separation generally exceeds the variation induced by semantically equivalent descriptions. Nevertheless, these shifts do not reliably form coherent persona-specific policies: apparently stable separation can arise from stereotyped action collapse, while diverse policies can exhibit noisy trajectory switching. These findings expose a gap between observable…

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  • arXiv cs.LGNov 8

    Beyond Node Attributes: A Controlled Evaluation and Ablation of Local Interaction Statistics for Ethereum Phishing Detection

    Thanh Dat Tran, Duy Loi Duong, Duy Luu Hoang, Minh Huy Tran, Vo Minh Thu Le +1

    Methods for detecting phishing accounts on Ethereum are usually evaluated as complete pipelines that differ in features, architecture, and training protocol, which makes the contribution of interaction information hard to isolate. This paper evaluates the Unlabeled Feature Extension (UFE), a block of 12 local interaction statistics computed from each account's incoming and outgoing call and transfer edges without reading class labels. UFE is appended to the 14 source features of HEIG-Phish and tested with six model families: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, LightGBM, Graph Attention Network, GraphSAGE, and Meta-IFD. Within each pair of Baseline and Plus variants, the data partition, model configuration, random seed, decision threshold, and sampled neighborhoods are identical; only the input feature block changes. Across 20 predetermined stratified partitions of the same 2,763 labeled externally owned accounts, UFE increased test Macro-F1 by 1.0 to 9.1 percentage points across the six models. Every pair improved on all 20 partitions, all Nadeau-Bengio corrected 95% confidence intervals lie above zero, and the false-positive rate decreased for all six models. An exact-edge…

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  • arXiv q-fin.RMNov 7

    Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning for an Options Market Maker: An Empirical Study with Real S&P 500 Options

    Jacky Chen, Ing-Haw Cheng, John Hull, Landis Li, Zissis Poulos +3

    Options market makers absorb client order flow and must hedge the resulting inventory risk under trading frictions. We study whether an option hedging reinforcement learning (RL) agent trained on historical market data outperforms three alternatives in tail-risk protection: (i) traditional delta hedging, (ii) simple hedge-ratio rules, and (iii) the same agent trained in simulated markets. Most RL hedging agents are trained in model-generated markets that do not capture the crashes and volatility regimes present in real data. We introduce an empirical replay environment using S&P 500 option data from 1996 to 2017 and compare against a matched geometric Brownian motion (GBM) environment, a stochastic-volatility (SABR) simulator, and a hybrid that values historical paths with Black-Scholes, all sharing the same portfolio mechanics, stochastic arrivals, costs, and test period. We train a distributional Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) agent and evaluate it out of sample over 2018-2023. The agent trained on empirical data reduces Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) tail loss by 3.1% compared to delta hedging and outperforms every hedge-ratio rule chosen during the…

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  • arXiv cs.CLNov 7

    DeepFinance: Can AI Diligence a $100MM Deal?

    Drew Hahn, Tyler Shibata, Jackson Grove, Rahul Sonwalkar

    Existing evaluations of AI models on high-finance work focus on retrieving answers from financial documents and producing numerically correct outputs. Real private equity (PE) and investment banking (IB) work also depends on choosing between conflicting sources, making sound assumptions, and keeping every step auditable. We introduce DeepFinance, an ultra long-horizon benchmark of 21 end-to-end PE and IB tasks that take a human professional an average of 27.1 hours. Each task pairs a request with a data room averaging 19 files and is graded against an average of 84 expert-written rubric criteria covering output, workflow, and judgment. We evaluate 22 model configurations, each in its native agent harness. The best configuration, GPT-6 Astra with max reasoning, satisfies 57.6% of rubric criteria, and the top four configurations are not statistically distinguishable. Frontier models often calculate correctly from the wrong inputs and find decision-relevant evidence without acting on it.

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  • arXiv cs.AINov 7

    Approximate Recall, Approximate Forecasts: Recall as a Diagnostic for LLM Forecasting Errors

    Prashanth Bhaskara, Shubhaankar Gupta, Seojoon Yeon

    Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit approximate recall: they retain coarse associations about past events while losing fidelity on specific details. Past research on LLMs has quantified different models' forecasting ability in real-world events using prediction markets, but has not studied how losing said fidelity impacts their forecasting abilities. For example: while an LLM correctly recalls that the answer to: ''Did Anna Sawai win the Best Drama Actress in the 76th Emmy Awards?'' is ''Yes,'' it incorrectly states the event date as September 22 rather than September 15. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric called the Recall Fidelity Score to study how imprecision in internalized knowledge propagates to forecasting capability on future events. On resolved historical markets, we find that higher local recall fidelity around semantically similar past events predicts lower forecasting error on resolved markets, and the same signal predicts smaller distance from open markets prices.

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  • arXiv cs.AINov 7

    BuySideFlow: A Point-in-Time Benchmark for LLM Agents in Investment Research

    Dong Bo, Fanjin Zhang, Ke Cheng, Xinxin Zhao, Xiaowei Su +5

    Large language models (LLMs) can generate SQL and SQL--Python workflows for investment research, but ensuring point-in-time (PIT) validity remains challenging. Agents must enforce disclosure cutoffs and select the appropriate historical states and record versions throughout data retrieval and financial analysis. We introduce \textsc{BuySideFlow}, a benchmark of 408 practitioner-derived Chinese-language tasks spanning equities, funds, fixed income, and macroeconomics over a fixed snapshot from a licensed production financial database. We provide executable references and a taxonomy of temporal errors, pairing result checks with expert audits of executed workflows. We evaluate nine agent configurations on all tasks, with result accuracy ranging from 16.2\% to 36.8\%. An audit of 900 runs on 100 shared tasks confirms PIT violations in 193 of the 380 runs that pass result checks (50.8\%), showing that output agreement alone does not establish temporal validity.

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  • arXiv cs.CLNov 7

    Track or Follow? A Jev-Compatible Multi-Agent Trading System When Web News Lags the Market

    Yebo Feng, Guangyan Gan, Liangrui Pan, Ruichao Liang, Cong Wu +2

    LLM agents increasingly trade on the Web news they read, yet much Web news about listed firms is published after, and about, the price move it reports, so a reader can agree with the market by following it instead of reading the event. We ask whether LLM judgments of Web news track the market's reaction to the reported event or follow it. To answer, we built a multi-agent trading system whose agents share only point-in-time stores and answer typed questions through the interface of Jev, a hosted typed decision model; code sets every position under a proved bound on how far text can move it. In a hash-committed test of a Jev-compatible reader built from a pinned LLM's option probabilities, item judgments track announcement-window abnormal returns (weekly Spearman 0.119), also after the LLM's release, and event types agree with the issuers' 8-K filings (AUC 0.833); Jev's judgments of news published after its own release track the reaction as well (descriptive). Exploratory analyses show where the association comes from: 72% of earnings news items appear after the issuer's filing, contributor-written items often report the price move, and from the first trade after publication the…

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  • arXiv cs.AINov 6

    StockASkill: A Local-First AgentSkill for Intelligent Stock Selection

    Xiangjing An, Zhibin Jiao, Aiting Chen

    Quantitative equity selection and portfolio construction in emerging and cross-border markets frequently suffer from computational bottlenecks, remote API fragility, survivorship bias, and rigid execution constraints such as discrete board lots and investor-mandated drawdown limits. In this paper, we present StockASkill, a local-first, full-data-driven AgentSkill engineered as a specialized Quant Co-Processor for autonomous AI agents and quantitative researchers. Tailored for agile portfolios (10^5 ~ 10^7 RMB) where discrete lot execution and capital protection are mandatory, StockASkill embeds a columnar DuckDB OLAP engine over 42.44 million historical price records and 186,432 financial disclosures spanning 26 years across China A-shares, Hong Kong, US equities, and ETFs. By eliminating ad-hoc network dependencies during analysis, StockASkill reduces cross-sectional screening latency across 5,400+ equities from over 25 seconds to sub-0.5 seconds (a 95%+ reduction). We formalize an end-to-end mathematical pipeline integrating a 7+1 factor alpha model, an SLSQP convex optimizer under smooth CVaR drawdown surrogates with exact path projection, dynamic 100-share board lot integer…

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  • arXiv cs.LGNov 5

    Patching the Blind Spots: Reversible LLM Rule Overlay for Frozen Fraud Detectors

    Bo Qu, Zhurong Wang, Frank Zahradnik, Ming Ouyang

    In industrial tabular fraud classification, gradient-boosted trees remain state-of-the-art, but even a well-trained model has blind spots, and retraining the deployed model is not always safe. We propose a framework that patches such a model without modifying it: LLMs propose rules anchored on features the model underweights by SHAP, and the resulting noisy pool is screened for empirical support and calibrated into an additive, reversible log-lift overlay that runs at the production cut-off. Single-LLM benefit is high-variance and inverts between datasets, so we pool three diverse backbones by equal-weight logit averaging, trading peak gain for a bounded worst case. On a real-world e-commerce fraud detector trained on selection-biased data, continued training regresses even when carefully tuned, whereas the overlay gains on average +2.26% recall at equal precision ($Δ$R@P) and +1.60% precision at equal recall ($Δ$P@R) over production cut-offs spanning 30-57% precision and 23-63% recall. On a public benchmark of seven designed bias-shift variants it raises $Δ$P@R on every variant and keeps $Δ$R@P near neutral. Each amendment is a readable predicate naming the fraud pattern it…

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  • arXiv cs.LGNov 5

    Dual-Stream LLM-Guided Reward Design for Reject-Inference-Aware Reinforcement Learning in E-Commerce Payment Fraud Detection

    Bo Qu, Zhurong Wang, Frank Zahradnik, Ming Ouyang

    Production fraud-detection models learn from a censored slice of their own traffic: transactions a legacy system blocked never receive fraud labels, so models train on a biased, approved-only distribution. We extend LLM-guided reward design, the framework of Qu et al. (2025) in which an LLM evolves the reward of a two-step REINFORCE fraud-blocking policy, to attack this reject-inference problem inside the reward. A single LLM designs a dual-stream reward: stream 1 applies the standard dollar-weighted precision objective to labeled transactions; stream 2 scores legacy-blocked, unlabeled transactions by contrasting the newest gradient-boosted risk signal against the legacy scores that drove the original block. Rather than prescribe which signals matter, we expose a superset of evidence and let the LLM decide for itself which to use, guided by evaluation feedback alone; because it writes the reward as code, that choice is directly auditable. On a held-out four-month out-of-time test, the dual-stream agent beats the prior labeled-only agent at every target recall, by +4.7, +2.4 and +3.0 points of dollar-weighted precision at 80%, 85% and 90% recall, and the production baseline by…

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Research · AI field

Algorithmic trading

Found by the topic model: algorithmic trading, financial fraud detection.

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