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Average squared error cannot reveal whether forecasting performance degrades because the future becomes less predictable or because forecasts move farther from the conditional mean. We introduce paired, mechanism-controlled stress tests that decompose changes in expected…

Counterfactual tool evaluation must distinguish authority, historical support, and what a comparison actually estimates. We study these distinctions with eleven executable enterprise-inspired tools, exact-propensity logs, and real local Model Context Protocol transport. An…

Memory-poisoning defenses for LLM agents are typically evaluated by their ability to prevent attacks. However, the traffic they process is rarely adversarial. The cost of implementing a defense is paid with each interaction, while its benefits are only seen in a small…

Reward-free latent world models can learn from offline videos and solve new image--goal tasks by optimizing actions through predicted latent futures. This setting places two demands on the planning state: its coordinates must be comparable with a goal image. Moreover, its…